The guide provides clear, compelling charts illustrating three market trends that matter to investors' portfolios - disruption, divergence, and demographics and debt.
- Disruption is all around us, from monetary policy disruption to geopolitical disruption to innovation-driven disruption.
- A shifting world order has made some institutions vulnerable, and has caused a trend towards de-globalization.
- The Fed is in uncharted territory as it attempts to unwind experimental monetary policy.
- The global economic environment was synchronized in 2017 but saw divergence in 2018, which is likely to continue.
- There are differences within the US; some policies are supportive of growth and some are likely to depress growth.
- There is significant divergence in valuations among different countries and regions.
Demographics and debt
- Ultra low rates encouraged the world to take on more debt when it should have been deleveraging.
- As a result, many countries, companies and households are under a significant debt burden.
- Debt is likely to continue to grow and become more difficult to service, especially as rates rise.