Quarterly economic outlook for third quarter 2017

July 11, 2017 | John Greenwood

The US business cycle expansion is still intact, owing much more to underlying fundamentals such as private sector deleveraging, the recovery of the banks, improved consumer finances, low inflation, and continuing low interest rates than any impact from the ascension of Mr. Trump to the presidency.

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Quarterly economic outlook for the second quarter of 2017

April 18, 2017 | John Greenwood

The Trump “reflation trade” is being undermined by the failure of the new administration to implement planned legislation, specifically the Affordable Care Act (the ACA, also known as Obamacare), corporate and personal tax cuts and the border adjustment tax.

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Annual economic outlook for 2017

Dec. 24, 2016 | John Greenwood

Under Donald Trump’s leadership, US gross domestic product (GDP) is widely expected to accelerate.

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Quarterly economic outlook for fourth quarter 2016

Oct. 10, 2016 | John Greenwood

After the sell-off in major asset markets and in sterling at the end of June, and the subsequent revival during the July-September period of almost all asset classes except the UK currency, the Brexit debate has moved into a “phony war” stage.

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