
Weaker consumer confidence dampens a good week for stocks
Good news on many fronts helped buoy stock markets and lessen inflation risks even if consumers aren't feeling positive.
Uncertainty contributed to a significant sell-off in US stocks last week, especially in technology stocks.
While we’re seeing headwinds in the US, we’re getting some good news in other parts of the world.
There have been dramatic sell-offs throughout history, but stocks have had a way of moving higher over the longer term.
Last week brought investors another bout of policy uncertainty and market jitters. Not surprisingly, the US stock market had a significant sell-off last week, with Friday’s action violently dragging down US stocks — especially tech stocks.1 However, while we’re seeing headwinds in the US, we’re getting some good news in other parts of the world. In times like these, it’s critical for investors to focus on their time horizon before reacting to short-term market reactions. Here’s what we know and what I’m watching.
Last week saw some bad news for US stocks:
In the last 8-10 weeks, I’ve been getting the same question from investors, “Should I change my allocation?” My answer is always the same: For those who have a long time horizon and are well diversified across and within the three major asset classes (stocks, fixed income, and alternatives), I would typically favor staying the course.
Even now, while we’re seeing headwinds in the US, we’re getting some good news in other parts of the world. For example, eurozone manufacturing activity appears poised to improve, as indicated in the most recent Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, which showed manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 — the eurozone’s highest level in 26 months.7
As I’ve said before, there is a seismic change occurring in Europe, with a very significant increase in fiscal spending, particularly around defense spending. It’s not just Germany — France recently announced a material increase in defense spending as well — and I’m sure there will be more to come. This should bode well for the European economy in general and its manufacturing sector in particular. I expect to see “green shoots,” signs that the economy is improving, in the coming months thanks to the ramp-up in fiscal spending.
This will be a very important week given the potential for a significant increase in tariffs on April 2. This is already causing a lot of market trepidation. In addition, we will get monthly jobs reports for both the US and Canada on Friday as well as some Consumer Price Index and PMI readings. We’ll also hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which is making its monetary policy decision early this week.
And so, getting back to the question I’ve gotten so often in recent weeks — “Should I change my allocation?” — I usually follow up with questions of my own: Is your time horizon longer than a presidential term? Is it longer than a recession? Is it longer than a decade? That’s because if one has a long enough time horizon, one can maintain allocations to equities and other more volatile asset classes, especially if a portfolio is well diversified and has exposure to lower-correlating asset classes that can help smooth volatility. This is important to keep in mind given the potential for more tariffs this week – and more market jitters and understandable urges to abandon stocks. Buckle your seat belts, stay calm and carry on.
Date |
Report |
What it tells us |
---|---|---|
March 31 |
Germany Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Tracks the path of inflation. |
|
Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors. |
|
Japan Tankan Survey |
Tracks Japanese companies’ views of economic and business conditions. |
|
Japan Unemployment Rate |
Indicates the health of the job market. |
|
Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Decision |
Reveals the latest decision on the path of interest rates. |
April 1 |
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) |
Tracks the path of inflation. |
|
Eurozone Unemployment Rate |
Indicates the health of the job market. |
|
US JOLTS Report |
Gathers data related to job openings, hires, and separations. |
|
US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. |
|
US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. |
|
India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing sector. |
April 2 |
US ADP Report |
Indicates the health of the US labor market. |
|
US Factory Orders |
Indicates the health of the manufacturing sector. |
|
Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
|
China Caixin Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
April 3 |
Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
|
UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
|
US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
|
US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) |
Indicates the economic health of the services sector. |
|
Japan Household Spending |
Tracks the health of the consumer. |
April 4 |
US Employment Situation Report |
Estimates the number of people on payrolls in the US economy, their average weekly working hours and hourly earnings, and several versions of the unemployment rate. |
|
Canada Jobs Report |
Collects data on employment, unemployment, and labor force participation. |
Good news on many fronts helped buoy stock markets and lessen inflation risks even if consumers aren't feeling positive.
A China-US tariff de-escalation, the Federal Reserve stays in wait-and-see mode, and the Bank of England strikes a hawkish tone while cutting rates.
In our monthly market roundup for April, Invesco experts give a rundown of a mixed month for global equity markets, as well as an update on fixed income markets.
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