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View from the US: What does war in Ukraine mean for the world order, inflation, 2024 elections...and Trump?

15 March 2022
Richard Ferraris
Richard Ferraris
Editorial & Investment Content
View from the US: What does war in Ukraine mean for the world order, inflation, 2024 elections...and Trump?
Key takeaways
1
President Joe Biden has an opportunity to correct some of his foreign policy missteps as he considers how best the US can respond to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
2
Donald Trump’s relationship with Vladimir Putin could work against him in 2024 elections but his ‘antagonistic’ approach to China remains in place under Biden.
3
Domestically, inflation is “all over the headlines” with the price of fuel surging, and with central banks expected to act to mitigate the impact of higher prices.

The war in Ukraine has had profound implications for global markets and the international system. In an Invesco webinar, our experts shared their thoughts on how Russia’s aggression in Ukraine could affect US politics and policy at home and abroad. 

President Joe Biden has suffered some setbacks on the global stage but the crisis in Ukraine could present him with a gap to rectify that, said Invesco’s Global Head of Public Policy Andy Blocker. 

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, although popular among the American electorate, was “poorly executed in a way that made America look weak,” Blocker said.

But one of the things I think Biden can take credit for is the multilateral approach, to try to restore our alliances across the globe with our typical allies first, starting with Europe and the EU, and then also trying to help with NATO*,

Andy Blocker, Global Head of Public Policy at Invesco
Will Trump run for the presidency again?

In a partisan political environment, there is interest in whether Trump runs as the Republican candidate in the next presidential elections.  

"There’s a long time between now and then. And I think he is going to be hamstrung by his longstanding, quote, unquote ‘friendship with Putin’ and his antagonism towards Ukraine,” said Blocker.

“If it [the vote] were today, I think it would totally kill his chances, but who knows in two years what will happen?” 

What investments are hedges against higher inflation?

In an environment of persistent inflation, Hooper said that certain equities would be a good hedge along with commodity currencies. 

“The Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar, this is an environment where we think emerging markets, but in particular commodity-producing emerging markets, can benefit,” Hooper said. 

What about the US relationship with China?

Blocker said that even though Trump is no longer in office, the “antagonistic relationship with China” remains in place.  

“I feel like we've crossed the Rubicon with China with Donald Trump imposing tariffs. And you have not seen any of those tariffs removed by President Biden,” he said

  • *North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an intergovernmental military alliance of 28 European countries, the US and Canada.

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