US Presidential Election 2024: Policy platforms and implications for investors

Key takeaways
Markets prefer policy clarity
Both candidates intend to focus on American competitiveness. However, a Biden re-election will likely be viewed as a continuation of the status quo while a second Trump term is likely to bring greater protection of US industries.
Higher corporate taxes haven’t deterred stock growth
A Trump victory would all but assure the extension of most provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while a Biden re-election would likely result in a return to a higher corporate tax rate.
Defense stocks outperformed under Biden
Defense spending increased every year under Presidents Trump and Biden, reaching a record level in 2023. Nonetheless, defense spending as a percentage of gross domestic product, which climbed modestly during Trump’s term, now sits at a multi-decade low.
2024 is an election year in the US, and ritual obliges that we offer our views on the global economy and global financial markets based on the potential outcomes.
Admittedly, we believe that investors often overstate the impact that the federal government has on broad financial markets. In fact, monetary policy is likely to have greater influence on risk assets in the next few years than any forthcoming legislation or executive action. Our approach therefore is to focus on the nuance.
To discover the nuance, download our latest insight piece comparing the different party’s polys platforms and their implications for investors.