Get an analysis of important drivers of global fixed income markets, including macroeconomic trends, interest rates, currencies, and credit, in our monthly global strategy report.
In this edition:
We’ve revised our 2026 US macro-outlook: Higher energy prices will likely push headline inflation higher, growth should remain resilient, and we expect no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
While oil market disruption and price volatility have grabbed headlines, disruption to other energy-related products and commodities will likely have a significant economic impact.
We see value in European short-term rates but are neutral on longer-term European rates amid a more mixed outlook. We’re neutral on UK rates.
We’re neutral on the euro, due to the eurozone’s vulnerability to energy market disruptions. We’re underweight the British pound because of the trade shock from higher energy prices.
It’s been a solid year for munis, with high yield munis a standout. Chief Investment Officer Mark Paris highlights which sectors could perform best going forward.
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Middle East tensions unsettled markets in March, yet European ETFs attracted US$12bn, driven by diversification away from the US and cautious demand for cash and short-duration fixed income.
As economies show resilience, selectivity and care remain critical for bond investors figuring out where to take duration risk and how to think about returns.
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