Gold report Q3 2025: Market performance and macro factors
Introduction
In our quarterly Gold Report, we review the performance of the gold price, including flows into gold-backed exchange-traded products, and touch upon the performance other asset classes. We also explore significant macro factors, including interest rates, bond yields, the US Dollar and inflation expectations.
Key facts from Q3 2025
- Gold price return in Q3 16.8%
- YTD gold price return 47.0%
- US 10yr TIPS yield 1.78% at end of Q3
- Fed’s inflation forecast 3.0% at end of 2025
Quarterly price performance
After being stuck in a relatively narrow range since mid-April, consolidating around US$3,350 per ounce, the gold price finally broke out to the upside at the end of August. The yellow metal never looked back, ending the period at a new all-time high of US$3,859 per ounce and a quarterly gain of 16.8%. The US$4,000 price level is now firmly in sight.
This report focuses mainly on macro events, including the Fed’s interest rate cut in September. However, it’s worth highlighting that a surge in investment demand was also a key factor in the rise of the gold price this quarter. New investments in gold via exchange-traded products were muted in 2024 but have since picked up, with the 220 tonnes of gold purchased in Q3 taking the year-to-date total to 619 tonnes, according to data from the World Gold Council. Demand has been broad-based, with net inflows from North America, Europe and Asia.
