China’s big bet on robots

Beijing recently hosted the world’s first humanoid robot half marathon¹ with 21 participating teams from the country’s research institutes, universities and private enterprises. Although the results were a mixed bag, with only six of the original 21 tenacious robots crossing the final finish line, the race nonetheless illustrated the considerable progress that has been made in robotic technology in China.

Coupled with the significant advances by China’s domestic artificial intelligence developers, we are fast approaching the day when humanoid robots could begin making their way into our daily lives.

When DeepSeek launched its R1 large language model in January, the investment community was primarily focused on how the moment captured the high-stakes competition between China and the US in AI advancement, and how such healthy competition would ultimately create efficiencies, drive down adoption costs and expand use cases for consumers. 

But in China, leaders across industry and government are thinking about AI differently. They are focused instead on how to incorporate AI into the manufacturing process, most notably in “hard tech” such as electric vehicles and robots, to achieve wider adoption and commercialization of AI. 

The powerful combination of AI and robotics is now coming into focus, just as the need for such advancements becomes glaringly apparent. 

Demographic headwinds are starting to impact economies all over the world. In developed markets, the working age population started to shrink for the first time in 2024 and will likely accelerate due to low fertility rates. China is expected to see its working-age population shrink by 70% by 2100. With a contraction in labor supply and increased costs of social services, this means that economic growth will have to rely more on productivity gains.

While simpler robots have been on factory floors since the 1960s, humanoid robots hold the promise of addressing both labor shortages and conducting work that humans generally don’t want to do. Industrial automation has already shown great efficiency gains and humanoid robots could offer many solutions across multiple industries, including logistics, healthcare and dangerous environments.

For the past decade, humanoid robot applications have been designed to be utilized within a controlled environment – relying on advanced sensor and reception technology as well as computational power using algorithm validation. Incorporating AI into humanoid robots will transform their capabilities, including learning through experience, adapting to different situations, navigating dynamic environments, and making complex decisions.

China’s core economic strength lies in its manufacturing prowess and the country’s sophisticated supply chains provide fertile ground for humanoid robot deployment, so it’s no surprise that the investment capital surrounding AI in China has been directed towards hardware technology and robots. There were 504 private transactions in AI-related investments in the first 9 months of 2024 and three quarters of the transactions involved hardware and robots.²

Costs are still high for most humanoid robots currently on the market. One of China’s largest humanoid robot companies has listed its first general-purpose humanoid robot at a suggested price of USD 90,000 and a mass production mode at USD 16,000³, with uses at home remaining limited.

The biggest commercialization variable could be how quickly AI and motion control technologies develop over the coming years. The ability for robots to speak different languages, perform complex tasks and operate in different environments, as well as soft skills such as interacting in social settings and collaborating with each other, will also be critical in reaching wider adoption.

I nonetheless expect rapid adoption in the next five years as we transition from the research and development phase to broader commercial applications, with the first humanoid robots deployed commercially likely in a business-facing setting, able to perform dexterous manual tasks enabled by an efficient AI learning model. 

In time, as with all hardware technologies, this should lead to more affordable and capable humanoid robots that can conduct tasks integral to operations in many different industries and ultimately for general consumer use in the home. 

As consensus grows around the use cases for humanoid robots across industrial, commercial, consumer and home settings, China is positioning itself to be both the leading robotics producer as well as the largest consumer market. On the manufacturing side, using robots could lead to outsized production gains through automation, enhancing China’s already firmly established competitive advantages in manufacturing. 

Similar to the winning playbook that China deployed to become the world’s dominant manufacturer and market for electric vehicles, China’s humanoid robot industry is poised to succeed because the technology receives policy support, presents a solution for an aging population, and harnesses the strength of the country’s manufacturing sector. It’s an especially compelling investment opportunity because, just like today’s EVs but unlike smartphones or PCs, Chinese companies also own the valuable intellectual property behind the hardware. 

Thus, when combined with AI advances, it’s possible that these robots could be as successful as the home-grown new energy vehicle industry. In a blue-sky scenario, these humanoid robots could hold the key to the next transformative technology the public has been waiting for.

Still, the days when robots outmatch high-performing humans is likely far away. In the 2025 Beijing E-Town Half Marathon results, the winning robot crossed the finish line at two hours and 40 minutes – the fastest human, just one hour and two minutes.

A version of this article appeared in South China Morning Post on May 4, 2025 (https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3308685/chinas-focus-ai-and-robotics-could-power-its-future?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article).