Big picture insight and analysis drawn from our global team of economists, strategists and policy experts.
Sign up
Five things to watch in August
There are five issues I’m watching closely in August: Progress on fiscal stimulus in the US, virus cases around the world, US-China tensions, the US dollar, and Joe Biden’s vice-presidential pick.
The first half is over
2020 has been a complicated year so far, for investors and – unfortunately - for everyone else as well. Here are a few thoughts halfway through.
Monthly Market Roundup July 2020
Strong performance from the US technology sector helped global equity markets post their fourth consecutive month of positive returns. Elsewhere, returns were mixed with concerns about a second wave of Covid-19 and rising trade tensions between the US and China weighing on sentiment. Read about July’s winners and losers.
China in the balance
China continues to invest more than other nations. That may depress capital efficiency. However, saving is even higher, which makes China self-financing and more balanced than many countries. The title of this document could refer to the recent increase in Covid-19 cases and deaths in China but it doesn’t. Equally, it could refer to China’s increasing isolation on the world’s geopolitical stage. Again, it doesn’t. What is referenced is the thorny question of whether China’s economy is out of balance.
The pressure is growing for the US economy
A federal unemployment benefit ends, Congress continues to debate about stimulus, and many fear schools could hasten a ‘second wave’ of virus cases.
Are US and UK government debt levels sustainable?
Could interest rates rise ahead of inflation?
Deal struck for €750bn recovery fund
That a deal was coming was a ‘known known’ for the markets. That it has been hammered out was to be expected, but given markets’ usual cynicism about most thing European, it is also a relief. It certainly undermines some investors’ view that Europe isn’t properly investable.
EU passes stimulus package while US lawmakers continue to negotiate
US stocks pressured by rising virus cases and tensions with China.
Virtual clusters favour regions over large cities
History suggests that old habits die hard but technology could permit real change in reaction to Covid-19. We think that changed working patterns may cause a re-emphasis on regional economies, at the expense of large cities.
The Future of Europe: Crises, Choices, Consequences
COVID-19, Karlsruhe and the NextGenEU Package: Federation, Confederation or Nation-States?
Economic recovery – three scenarios
What shape will the upswing take?
Strategic Sector Selector - Trying to have it both ways
The swift bear market in the first quarter of 2020 gave way to a rapid rebound in equities in Q2.
As US virus cases grow, so does the case for ‘big government’
Another injection of fiscal stimulus may be on the horizon.
Solvency II Review: European Commission shows its hand
While the work carried out to date by European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) has focused on the technical side of the Solvency 2 review, the launch of the European Commission’s consultation and roadmap for the Solvency 2 review provides insights into the political priorities that will shape the outcome of the review.
Podcast: Identifying investment opportunities using a macro regime approach
This podcast discusses the supporting evidence pointing toward economic recovery.
Expectations diverge for economic recovery in the US and China
Last week, we saw increases in both the Chinese and US stock markets. But that’s where the similarities end — there is currently a meaningful difference in market confidence for the prospects for longer-term economic recovery.
Inflation: low probability; high impact
We are often asked about the risk of inflation. We think it is a low probability scenario but with sufficiently high impact to warrant investigation. History provides few easy answers but we conclude with a list of assets that we believe are most likely to mitigate against inflation.
Market Pulse: Portfolio Manager Perspectives
COVID-19 raises new questions in emerging markets, fixed income and ESG. Invesco’s investment experts discuss the pandemic’s ripple effects in these markets.
US jobs were a bright spot for June, but rising infections threaten long-term progress
How long can economic data improve while infections continue to spread?
Applied philosophy - the unexpected defensive
A rapid bear market and an almost as rapid recovery did nothing to change market leadership as technology has continued to outperform in both phases proving to be a better “defensive” than traditional defensives.
Global Debt Review 2020
BIS data suggests global debt ratios increased in 2019 and were higher than during the financial crisis 10 years earlier. Deleveraging has not happened, despite 10 years of global growth. This was not a great starting point from which to enter what we think will be the deepest post-WW2 recession.
Monthly Market Roundup June 2020
In June, global equity markets continued to take solace from the fact that governments and central banks are working together to alleviate the impact of the virus-inspired recession and support ailing economies. However, it’s probably best not to look down. Read about June’s winners and losers.
Near-term pullback, long-term uptrend
Why we could see a near-term pullback, followed by a resumption of the secular bull market in stocks.
Covid-19 pandemic recession – comparison with the GFC and Great Depression
Recently there have been comparisons between what is happening to economic activity now, and what happened in the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and even in the Great Depression of the 1930s. Some argue that the Covid-19 pandemic recession is materially different to previous recessions, whilst others argue there are many parallels. In this article, we outline our thoughts on this topic, and the ramifications for economic activity and inflation going forward.
Mid-year outlook: A slow, uneven economic recovery in the second half
It’s a challenge to craft a six-month outlook during a pandemic, but tumultuous times call for a focus on what we have historically learned about market and business cycles. Our base case is that the global economic recovery in its initial stages will be slow and uneven, and that there will be increased volatility for a variety of assets.
Invesco Podcast: 2nd Half Outlook, Invesco’s Chief Investment Strategist
In the latest Invesco Podcast Ben Gutteridge, Director of Model Portfolio Services, speaks to Kristina Hooper, Invesco’s Chief Global Market Strategist. The conversation covers all the major talking points investors are currently grappling with.
Economic data shows improvement, but infection rates prove difficult to control
We continue to receive positive economic news as developed world economies progress in their re-openings, but I’m also keeping an eye on some negative signs that could cause disruption. I evaluate the positive and negative signs we’ve seen recently and what they may mean for markets.
Asian Green Bonds May Offer Resilience in Volatile Markets
Global “Green Bond” issuance has increased dramatically in recent years, including in Asia. Growth is set to continue as investors demand “green financing” for major projects like infrastructure and renewable energy.
The Eurozone’s Hamiltonian Movement
We answer key questions about new EU proposals for a joint fiscal cushion in response to COVID-19: Are these plans a “Hamiltonian Moment” — after Alexander Hamilton’s federalization of US states’ Revolutionary War debts in 1790? What’s on offer; what will the bargaining be about; will it get through? What might it all mean in the long term for the euro, euro assets and the choice between the euro and the dollar as international and reserve currencies?
Consumer trends: Grocery shoppers show increased appetite for e-commerce
Habits like online shopping which were adopted or accelerated during lockdown could represent a lasting shift as consumers grow accustomed to the convenience.
The Big Picture: Eyes wide shut
In the face of what we expect to be the deepest global recession in living memory (by far), equity markets are running with their eyes wide shut into what feels like a trap.
Inflation state of mind. Not really, but…
The debate about inflation can be more or less intense, but it is always open. The COVID-19 pandemic may have brought some new elements to it. Read Luca Tobagi’s thoughts in his latest edition of T con Zero.
Podcast: Identifying investment opportunities using a macro regime
What do the latest short-term outlooks mean for relative factor performance, asset correlation and volatility?
Five key takeaways from the Fed’s press conference
This week, I summarize five key takeaways from the Federal Reserve’s press conference, including its plan to remain very accommodative and do whatever it can to support the US economy.
Burgeoning ‘green shoots’ bring hope for an economic recovery
May brought encouraging signs of economic recovery in the US, Canada, Europe and China. I believe fiscal stimulus needs to continue, or else the situation could change and these “green shoots” could quickly wilt and die.
Portfolio positioning for a recovery scenario
We provide a historical perspective on stock market, sector, size, style and regional allocations.
Nations pledge trillions in fiscal stimulus to boost their economies
The European Union, Japan, and China propose a variety of spending initiatives to help businesses and workers.
A case study in lowering unemployment
History shows us that fiscal policy can be more effective in reducing unemployment than monetary policy because it is more direct. A notable example is the Work Projects Administration (WPA), which put millions back to work in the US during the Great Depression and created long-lasting benefits that had a compounding effect on job creation. Could this be a model for 2020 and beyond?
Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Measures
We at Invesco have participated in conversations with epidemiologists, virologists, medical and macro policymakers, to inform our three-pronged analytical approach to the pandemic.
Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus
What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines.
Are the stars aligning for EM equities?
We have long extolled the value offered by EM assets and for the first time in ages this is paired with a belief that oil has bottomed. Are the stars aligning for EM equities?
Podcast: Q2 2020 Capital Market Assumptions Update
Invesco Investment Solutions develops capital market assumptions (CMAs) that provide long-term estimates for the behaviour of major asset classes globally.
US-China tensions could be the biggest risk to US stocks this year
A massive policy response has helped bolster stocks against the economic impact of COVID-19, but another tariff war could threaten markets.
Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2020
Our annual Global Fixed Income Study reveals the latest themes front of mind for fixed income investors.
Podcast: Investment opportunities in the current macro environment with Alessio de Longis
In their latest podcast Ben Gutteridge - Director of Model Portfolio Services, and Alessio de Longis - Senior Portfolio Manager, Invesco Investment Solutions discuss the latest short-term outlooks based on macro regime analysis as well as addressing the concern that there may be too much optimism in the markets.
US government debt and money growth
A contracting US economy is not good news for public finances. How big is the US fiscal deficit, how is the US Treasury going to finance it and what, if any, are the implications for inflation?
Low-wage job losses fuel the US stimulus debate
Amidst all the terrible data in the April US jobs reports, there was one obvious and glaring takeaway: Job losses were concentrated among low-wage workers. I believe Congress needs to help American households remain solvent through further stimulus.
Don’t look down
Central banks are performing a kind of hypnosis, persuading markets to look into their eyes and ignore all else. After all, it is important to look forward when traversing an abyss and to not look down.
Navigating through uncharted waters
Seven weeks into lockdown, and the business has settled into a ‘new normal’ operating rhythm. However, whilst individuals are showing huge adaptability and resilience, there is no doubt that this is a crisis unlike any other we have faced in our investment careers and there is no clear ‘playbook’ on how to navigate the financial markets. What have our Fund Managers and Analysts been doing as these events unfolded?
Monthly Market Roundup April 2020
Despite the continuing global spread of Covid-19, April saw both equity and credit markets stage a rebound from the severe market shock witnessed in March. Read our review of the global markets.
EM Corporates: Identifying Opportunities
Why we believe Coronavirus-related volatility has led to once-in-a-decade investment opportunities in emerging market corporate bonds.
Global markets: What to watch for in May
Some countries and states are easing lockdowns, while politicians debate what to do next.
Five things to know about Chinese and EM stocks
In the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic, naturally, we’ve received many questions about the outlook for Chinese and EM stocks—here are 5 things to watch.
Market Pulse: Portfolio Manager Perspectives
Portfolio managers discuss investment possibilities in real estate, equities and credit. The level of opportunity will vary greatly by location and sector.
Weekly market performance update
Michael provides an update on weekly and YTD data, as well as identifying things to watch out for in the week ahead.
Market update with Ben Gutteridge
Assessing the conflict between weak economic data and recovering stock markets.
Three scenarios for the Covid-19 outlook
The coronavirus is causing massive disruptions to world economies but what sort of recovery can we expect when lockdown restrictions are eased and eventually disbanded, subject to an effective vaccine being found?
As the US passes more stimulus, disagreements loom on what comes next
Congress readies for negotiations over the next stimulus bill, while governors decide when and how to re-open state economies.
The Bare Necessities: A taxonomy of S&P 500 bear markets
The global explosion of the COVID-19 pandemic has made the bear angry, and now the world is divided between those who ran away in a disorderly way to escape the bear’s wrath and those who instead lie in a sheltered corner, waiting for a good opportunity.
Assessing the spread of the disease and responses to it
Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office reviews the macro, market and policy impacts of the coronavirus phenomenon.
ESG regulatory news
While the regulatory focus on environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues as well as sustainable investing continues to gather speed, respective initiatives will have a significant impact on providers of asset management services and investors over the remainder of 2020 and into 2021.
Policies, Performance and Prognosis beyond Pandemic Pandemonium and Panics
COVID-19 has pressured the global economy in an unprecedented way. What will be the lasting impacts?
Quantifying the earnings impact of COVID-19
Like a storm rumbling in, the big US banks kicked off what’s likely to be a brutal earnings season. In our view, Wall Street analysts are woefully unprepared for the coming onslaught.
Central and commercial bank responses to the coronavirus
The major central banks have been busy responding to the economic fallout from Covid-19, but what’s been happening in the commercial banking sector?
Podcast: Implications for institutional investors from current market uncertainty
In this podcast, Derek Steeden discusses the potential opportunities that could best support institutions during this global pandemic.
Invesco Real Estate Europe: Open for Business
How is Invesco Real Estate in Europe responding to the COVID-19 outbreak? We look at how we maintain our business continuity processes and how these enable our ongoing focus on full active management of the existing assets we manage on our clients’ behalf.
As earnings season looms, portfolio managers look for long-term opportunity
PMs discuss the real estate market, global equities, commodities and more.
Tracking China’s recovery and a dire US earnings season
What does the data tell us about the potential outcomes for China’s economy and for US stocks?
Global Real Estate Outlook: A Quest for Certainty in Uncertain Times
In recent weeks, we have communicated frequently with you to keep you abreast of our response as a firm to the evolving COVID-19 crisis. In the attached research piece, we felt it was appropriate to take stock at the end of a turbulent month and start to set the stage for thinking about what comes next.
Uncommon truths: Viruses, nuclear disasters and financial markets
The Coronavirus is spreading but could the cure be worse than the disease? We look at why we tend to overstate the risks of such events and examine the possible economic and financial market consequences.
Uncommon truths: Is oil cheap at $20?
We have argued for some time that oil will eventually fall to $20. It is easy to come up with reasons why it could go much lower but history suggests it is not far from bottoming.
Trade, stimulus, and politics: What matters to markets this week
markets. Today I focus on trade, stimulus, and other issues I’m watching this week.
What you need to know on Covid-19’s impact on US real estate
Here are the most important things that we want you to hear from us about the impact of COVID-19 on US real estate conditions.
Podcast: Short-term outlook and market opportunities with Alessio de Longis
What investment opportunities are there in the current business cycle?
Sign up to receive the latest insights from Invesco’s global team of experts and details about online events designed to give you the information you need to support your clients.
Are credit spreads wide enough?
We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context.
Inflation prospects after the coronavirus bailout
What impact, if any, will the recent actions of central banks have on inflation?
Asia Pacific real estate amid pandemic uncertainty
We believe the uncertainty could open up attractive real-estate opportunities in Asia Pacific related to long-term themes.
Six things for investors to watch in April
This month will be critical in assessing the global response to the coronavirus crisis. With that in mind, there are six issues in particular that I’ll be tracking closely. There are also two issues that have garnered recent headlines, but that I’m less worried about in the long run.
Are credit spreads wide enough?
What is the “shape” of the economy recovery and what does it mean for investment opportunities?
How have the BoE, ECB and BoJ responded to the coronavirus pandemic?
Stung by criticism that it has often been slow in responding to previous crises, the ECB has announced a number of measures but do they go far enough?
Where do portfolio managers see opportunities in today’s environment?
PMs weigh in on business trends, balance sheets, disciplined approaches and Federal Reserve policy.
Looking for signs of a bottom in stocks
Technical indicators inform timing decisions around major turning points in stocks long before the economic data do. Many believe that the stock market must bottom before a new business cycle can begin.
Following Bagehot - The Fed to the rescue!
How is the Fed responding to this crisis and what measures are they taking to calm markets down?
Interview: Investment strategy from Invesco US
In this interview, Ben Gutteridge, Director of Model Portfolio Services, speaks to Brian Levitt, Invesco’s Global Market Strategist based out of New York.
Fiscal responses to the coronavirus
What’s happening now, and more importantly, what happens next will be critical in the fight to support the global economy.
Where do stocks and bonds go from here?
The monetary and fiscal response to the coronavirus crisis so far has resulted in a mixed outlook.
Webcall replay: Life in a Time of COVID-19: Global Outlook
In an effort to continue to provide you with useful and relevant information during this period of market distress, we organized a webinar with our Global Macro Strategist EMEA, Arnab Das on March 27th. We want to continue to provide you with updates on the impact and share our insights.
Coronavirus impact and response: A global view
What can we learn from the hardest-hit countries, and what does this all mean for markets Weekly?
The European Central Bank's new programme is a break from past restraints and orthodoxies
What action is the ECB taking to support the euro area and will it be enough?
The big picture: Investing in an uncertain world
Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12 months.
Chaos can create opportunities
Bottoming is a process, but we see signs that risk-off positioning is getting extreme.
Assessing the globe’s three-pronged policy response to coronavirus
Health care, monetary, and fiscal policy will all play critical roles in combating this crisis.
Webcall replay: Coronavirus-related market sell-off
With coronavirus fears weighing heavily on financial markets and the global economy, Kristina Hooper held a webcall on 11 March to provide an update on the impact and share her thoughts.
Economic and financial implications of the Covid-19 crisis
The coronavirus is certainty having a major impact on equity and bond markets as concerns grow over a global recession. What can the US Federal Reserve do to restore calm?
As markets struggle, where do global economies go from here?
Where do economies go from here as the coronavirus outbreak spreads? It varies by region, but we believe Q2 will be brighter for China, and we do not expect a substantial impact on the global economy beyond 2020.
