Article Global Fixed Income Strategy Update– Nov 2019

December 5, 2019
Global Fixed Income Strategy Report
Read our latest views on globalization, interest rates, currencies, fossil fuels, China’s onshore bonds

Key takeaways

  • 1. : Our economists ask, is globalization over? We don’t think so, but it may have peaked.
  • 2. : Our credit team explains why the transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels could be negative for global growth and geopolitical stability.
  • 3. : In our Q&A, we speak with our Asia Pacific team about the Chinese onshore bond market – its structure and key drivers.

Is globalization over? The trend may have peaked, but we don't think it's ending

Globalization means many things - migration, the exchange of ideas and culture, and trade and cross–border capital flows, to name a few. Increased trade tensions, especially between the US and China, have shined the spotlight on this topic and raised important questions: Is the end of globalization at hand and what are the implications for investors?

Here, we narrowly define globalization to mean trade in goods and services and suggest that the dramatic rise in global trade flows (especially manufactured goods) witnessed over the last three decades may have reached its zenith. We argue that this is not a new phenomenon – or related only to recent trade tensions – but rather the continuation of a trend underway since the global financial crisis.

So if globalization has been waning for years, what’s the worry?

Read the paper to learn more

Read the latest Global Fixed Income Strategy Update 

  • The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

  • Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals, they are subject to change without notice and are not to be construed as investment advice. This document is marketing material and is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.

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