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Based on year-to-date temperatures, it looks as though 2024 could be the hottest year on record. There may be some temporary factors (El Nino, for example) that explain this but the trend is towards warming. Global temperatures in each the last 13 months have been around 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average for the month concerned.

Our models suggest there is a relationship between global temperature and the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the previous 100 years, which itself is a function of CO2 emissions in earlier years. That gives hope that we can do something to limit the rise in temperature and the extent of broader climate change.

However, our model-predicted end-of-century temperatures are around 0.25 degrees higher than they were just three years ago, suggesting we are not making enough progress in reducing emissions (the chart shows how the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has evolved over more than 800,000 years and the trends we imagine to 2100).

Efforts to reduce CO2 emissions will rely on technological developments and we expect further large investments in such mitigation techniques (along with carbon removing initiatives, including reforestation). However, with our model suggesting a 3-4 degree Celsius rise in global temperature by 2100 (versus 1850-1900), we are also likely to witness large adaptation spending as we learn to live in a changing world.