Forecasting with factors, and how Quality keeps its cool
In an increasingly complex and unpredictable economic landscape, investors are looking beyond traditional asset allocation to strategies that offer more targeted exposure to the drivers of return. One such approach is factor investing, a method that selects securities based on specific characteristics, or ‘factors’ that have been shown, over time, to influence long-term performance. This approach can provide investors with the tools to navigate shifting market conditions based on their goals and risk preferences.
Not all factors are created equal, and their effectiveness can vary over time. Style factors like Value, Size, and Quality each behave differently depending on the market environment. While factors like Value or Size may shine in early stages of economic recovery, Quality stands out for its consistent performance across a range of market conditions.
The Quality factor typically focuses on companies that are highly profitable, carry low levels of debt, and generate stable earnings; characteristics that tend to be more resilient during periods of economic stress or rising inflation. As illustrated in the chart below, Quality historically has outperformed during months when the market has fallen, while it has underperformed modestly during the most risk-on periods over the past 25+ years. This relative protection in weaker markets means that over the whole market cycle a Quality approach has typically outperformed. Since January 1999, the S&P 500 Quality TR index has returned 10.6% per annum, outperforming the S&P 500 TR index by 2.6% per annum with lower volatility (18.1% vs. 19.1% p.a.).