An analysis of important drivers of global fixed income markets, including macroeconomic trends, interest rates, currencies, and credit, in our monthly global strategy report.
In this edition:
Global macro strategy
Key macro conclusions for the US, Europe, China, and emerging markets from the June IFI Global Investors’ Summit:
- US: AI is the dominant macro theme, but its effects are uncertain
- Europe and UK: Tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) is best viewed as “insurance hikes,” not the start of a sustained tightening cycle
- China: Export power offsets lukewarm domestic demand
- Emerging markets: Reassessing the oil shock — why this isn’t 2022
Global credit strategy
Credit investors discussed where they see opportunities within US and European investment grade and high yield at the June IFI Summit. Key takeaways:
- The European auto sector received the harshest criticism
- AI infrastructure emerged as the highest conviction theme, with potential investment opportunities across sectors and ratings categories.
Interest rate outlook
Overweight: China
Neutral: Australia, Europe, UK, and US
Underweight: Japan
Currency outlook
Overweight: Chinese renminbi and US dollar
Neutral: Australian dollar and Japanese yen
Underweight: British pound and euro
