Investment Outlook Equities: An improving landscape in the year ahead
The 2025 equities outlook is improving. Balance sheets look healthy, and many stocks are attractively valued, though geopolitical risks remain. Find out more.
Watching the Euros 2024 might make you wonder what life must be like for a professional footballer, with millions of people watching you at the Euros … and millions of Euros in your bank account! The Mbappes, Kanes and Ronaldos of the world don’t have too many financial worries, but most of us probably have something to fund for a future expense. That may be something specific like paying off a mortgage or university fees. Or simply to have enough money to be able enjoy retirement.
Whatever your own financial goal is, you’ll need a way to grow your money from what you have now to what you need then. That’s the aim of investing in a nutshell.
The question is how do you do it?
History shows that investing in equities has produced the most successful results over the long term. Equities – or the stocks and shares of publicly traded companies – have produced higher returns than cash, bonds and commodities over the past 5, 10, 15 and 20 years.
Past performance does not predict future returns.
Index past performance |
May'23- |
May‘22- |
May’21- |
May’20- |
May’19- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
ICE BofA Euro 3-Month Deposit Rate |
3.74% |
0.37% |
-0.69% |
-0.55% |
-0.52% |
Bloomberg Global-Aggregate Index |
0.77% |
-6.65% |
-0.31% |
-5.42% |
9.03% |
Bloomberg Commodity Index |
5.13% |
-20.28% |
63.83% |
35.04% |
-21.35% |
FTSE All-World Index |
20.59% |
-1.97% |
8.40% |
33.23% |
-2.28% |
Source: Bloomberg, in EUR, as at 31 May 2024. Past performance does not predict future returns.
Looking at it another way, using a hypothetical example, if you could have invested €10,000 in the global equities market 20 years ago, your investment might be worth more than €58,000 today. That’s more than three times the amount you would have had from investing in bonds, more than five times as much from commodities or nearly five times as much as if you had kept that €10,000 in a deposit account.
Please note these are hypothetical examples using indices, such as the FTSE All-World Index used as a proxy for global equities. An index is not an investment product and has no fees involved, whereas an investment in an ETF would have fees deducted.
Past performance does not predict future returns.
It’s important to understand that investing in equities is nothing like keeping your money in a savings account at the bank. There are no guarantees, and equities can go down as well as up, especially over shorter periods. Just because a stock performed well last year doesn’t mean it will next year.
That’s where diversification comes in.
Think about that star player on your nation’s football team. As talented as he may be, you need plenty of people around him, filling in different positions and possessing different skillsets. History shows that a well-constructed team can help you stay competitive in challenging situations and overcome obstacles when someone isn’t performing well on the day.
It's the same with investing. There are plenty of big ‘star’ companies that grab the headlines. The Apples, Amazons and Nvidias of the stock market may often top the performance league tables, but they too will have their off days. Just look at Tesla. Any company can have a poor sales quarter, fall in demand, change in management, or some other negative news.
When you spread your investment around, you’re increasing the probability of capturing the stocks that do well, and the idea is that they compensate for any that don’t perform as well. Investing in 100 stocks should even out the returns compared to putting all your money into just one stock … and investing in 1,000 should in theory be better than 100.
Diversification isn’t just about numbers, though. It’s also about differentiation. If you only invest in the stocks of one type of company, let’s say the major supermarkets in the UK or industrial manufacturers in Germany, it doesn’t matter how many you invest in if they all perform the same. If one goes up, they may all go up, and the same on the way down.
Meaningful diversification requires investing in different types of companies, of different sizes, and from different parts of the world. Every country goes through cycles, where its economy expands for a period of time and then eventually contracts … then recovers to begin another expansion phase.
Some companies tend to perform better than others during certain phases of the cycle. For instance, people tend to spend more on travel and other luxury goods and services when their economy is booming. But when conditions get tough, people will cut back on lavish goods so they can pay for basic necessities … like food.
Even the most successful companies go through lean periods when customers can’t afford to buy their products. That’s why you want to invest in a wide variety of companies that are selling their products to a wide range of customers around the world. While countries tend to go through similar economic cycles, the timing and length of each phase often differs from one country to the next.
That’s good news from a diversification perspective because difference is your friend.
When you invest in companies from across the world, you’re gaining exposure to large household names, often from the more established western economies. Many of these are your solid defensive players. These companies can be more resilient to economic downturns as they tend to have diversified businesses and broad customer bases.
You’re also gaining exposure to younger companies with potential to grow faster than more mature businesses. Many are involved in new technologies and other high growth areas of the market. While some of the companies are in developed economies, many are found in emerging markets.
Companies in developing regions of the world are also well-positioned to capitalise on the growth opportunities available as those countries evolve. This can often include catering for the needs of a domestic population as it becomes wealthier and healthier.
By combining companies from developed and emerging market countries, you’re effectively getting the best of both worlds.
How could you possibly buy all the stocks in the world or even a large proportion of them? And if you could, how would you manage such an enormous portfolio?
One way would be to buy and hold different funds that each invest in the stocks of certain countries or regions. However, you would still have to select the funds, manage the allocation to each one and deal with the administration.
A more efficient way would be to invest in an ETF that tracks the FTSE All-World Index. With one simple investment, you would instantly gain exposure to more than 4,000 stocks from 49 countries, covering 86% of the investible universe. The index includes large and medium-sized companies. Everything is taken care of automatically within that one simple ETF.
An ETF is an Exchange-Traded Fund, which as you might guess is an investment fund that is traded on a stock exchange in the same way as ordinary stocks and shares. You can invest in an ETF through most online investment platforms or trading apps. And ETFs tend to have low costs.
Most everyone will agree that paying lower costs for something is a good thing. But what could that really mean for your investment and achieving your financial objectives?
While there are no guarantees about the future performance of the stock market, the impact of an ETF’s cost is easier to see. One reason ETFs are attractive is because of their transparency, including how much they cost (which is typically on the low side). The ETF’s ongoing charge figure, or OCF, is the percentage fee deducted from the ETF to cover the costs of running the fund.
Here, we see the actual performance of the FTSE All-World index over the past 20 years and hypothetical returns of ETFs tracking the index, assuming different levels of fees. This is simply meant to illustrate the point, showing ETFs with annual fees of 1%, 0.5%, 0.22% and 0.15%.
The OCF is an annual percentage deducted daily on a pro rata basis. That means the impact is often negligible over short time periods. But over the longer term, even a small difference in the OCF can make a big difference to the overall performance of your investment.
The above chart is a hypothetical example for the purposes of illustrating a point. It shows a hypothetical investment of €10,000 invested over a 20 year period, with different fee rates applied. For example, a 1% annual fee reduced the final investment pot by more than €13,000 while a 0.15% fee reduced it by only €2,200.
That’s why it makes sense to choose an ETF with low fees. After all, it’s your money you’re investing. You should be able to keep as much of it as possible.
Find out about an ETF that offers you simple exposure to the FTSE All-World Index for the lowest cost in the market.
To minimise exposure to fluctuations in the exchange rate between USD and GBP and USD and EUR, we offer GBP-hedged and EUR-hedged share classes of the ETF.
The 2025 equities outlook is improving. Balance sheets look healthy, and many stocks are attractively valued, though geopolitical risks remain. Find out more.
Discover the potential of equal weight strategies and how they could offer enhanced diversification.
The most popular way most investors gain exposure to commodities is through exchange-traded products. You can gain exposure to a single commodity’s price via an exchange-traded commodity (ETC) or to a basket of commodities, such as those represented by the BCOM Index, via an ETF.
For complete information on risks, refer to the legal documents.
Value fluctuation: The value of investments, and any income from them, will fluctuate. This may partly be the result of changes in exchange rates. Investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Emerging Markets: As a large portion of this Fund is invested in less developed countries, investors should be prepared to accept a higher degree of risk than for an ETF that invests only in developed markets.
Securities lending: The Fund may be exposed to the risk of the borrower defaulting on its obligation to return the securities at the end of the loan period and of being unable to sell the collateral provided to it if the borrower defaults.
Equity: The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by a number of factors including the activities and results of the issuer and general and regional economic and market conditions. This may result in fluctuations in the value of the Fund.
Currency hedging: Currency hedging between the base currency of the Fund and the currency of the Share class may not completely eliminate the currency risk between those two currencies and may affect the performance of the Share class.
Stock Connect: The Fund may use Stock Connect to access China A Shares traded in Mainland China. This may result in additional liquidity risk and operational risks including settlement and default risks, regulatory risk and system failure risk.
Data as at 24 October 2024, unless otherwise stated.
If investors are unsure if this product is suitable for them, they should seek advice from a financial adviser.
This is marketing material and not financial advice. It is not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment / investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication.
Views and opinions are based on current market conditions and are subject to change. For more information on our funds and the relevant risks, please refer to the share class-specific Key Information Documents / Key Investor Information Documents (available in local language), the financial statements and the Prospectus, available from www.invesco.eu. A summary of investor rights is available in English from www.invescomanagementcompany.ie. The management company may terminate marketing arrangements. UCITS ETF’s units / shares purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to UCITS ETF. Investors must buy and sell units / shares on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units / shares and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. For the full objectives and investment policy please consult the current prospectus.
Index disclaimer: The Invesco FTSE All-World UCITS ETF (the “Fund”) has been developed solely by Invesco. The Fund is not in any way connected to or sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by the London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. All rights in the FTSE All-World Index (the “Index”) vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the Index. FTSE®, ICB®, are trade marks of the relevant LSE Group company and are used by any other LSE Group company under license. The Index is calculated by or on behalf of FTSE International Limited or its affiliate, agent or partner. The LSE Group does not accept any liability whatsoever to any person arising out of (a) the use of, reliance on or any error in the Index or (b) investment in or operation of the Fund. The LSE Group makes no claim, prediction, warranty or representation either as to the results to be obtained from the Fund or the suitability of the Index for the purpose to which it is being put by Invesco.
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