Article

US economy has been resilient despite trade policy uncertainty

3 June 2025
Invesco Investment Solutions
Invesco Global Market Strategy Office
Worried businessman looking at laptop while sitting in office
Key takeaways
Tariff uncertainty
1

Until ongoing tariff uncertainty is resolved, countries may be hesitant to strike new trade deals with the US.

Economic resilience.
2

Despite the noise of the trade war, US financial markets and the economy have shown remarkable resilience.

Global assets
3

We continue to believe non-US dollar assets are more attractively valued and well-positioned in today’s environment.

Feeling dizzy? You’re not alone. Last week began with a whirlwind: A 50% US tariff on European Union exports was delayed just days after being announced. A few days later, the Court of International Trade declared many of the Trump-era tariffs invalid, including ones announced on “Liberation Day.” Then hours later, a US Federal Appeals Court paused that ruling from the trade court, putting the impacted tariffs back in place until further legal arguments can be made.

Spare a thought for the researchers at the Yale Budget Lab, who are constantly updating the “US effective tariff rate.” Their estimates have swung wildly — from 28% just after Liberation Day to 6.9% following the trade court’s ruling, and now likely back to the mid-teens after the appeal.1

Where trade policy goes from here is anyone’s guess. Many of us have likely been brushing up on Sections 122 and 338 of the US Trade Act. Until the standoff between the Trump administration and Congress is resolved, countries may be hesitant to strike new trade deals with the US. The bottom line: Policy uncertainty is here to stay.

This week’s focus: The US amid uncertainty

Despite the noise, US financial markets and the economy have shown remarkable resilience:

  • Markets are back to square one
    Inflation expectations and real yields have returned to levels seen at the start of the year.2  Corporate bond spreads have tightened toward early 2025 levels,3 and the S&P 500 Index has posted a modest gain year-to-date4 — reflecting a market that’s been weathering uncertainty without a clear direction, in our view.
  • A solid Treasury auction
    Concerns about the US funding its growing fiscal deficit may have been overblown. Last week’s 5-year Treasury auction saw near-record demand,5 easing fears of rising borrowing costs.
  • Consumers are holding steady
    While consumer spending softened in April — partly due to a record 20% drop in goods imports from tariffs6 — the labor market has remained strong. Disposable personal income rose for the fourth consecutive month.7
  • Inflation remains contained
    Tariffs haven’t yet pushed up prices. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, rose just 0.1% month-over-month in April and 2.5% year-over-year — the smallest annual increase in over four years.8
  • Positive sign for Big Tech
    NVIDIA announced strong first-quarter earnings, underscoring the enduring momentum behind the artificial intelligence theme. While we're not offering a stock recommendation, it's a reminder that investment themes can persist — even amid policy distractions.

Looking beyond the US

Our focus on the US this week isn’t to suggest investors ignore global opportunities. On the contrary, we continue to believe non-US dollar assets are more attractively valued and well-positioned in today’s environment. But it’s worth noting that, despite the policy fog, the US economic backdrop has remained relatively sound.

What to watch this week

 

Data release

Why it’s important

June 2

US ISM manufacturing

Leading indicator that tends to capture inflection points in the economy

June 2

UK house prices

Details health of UK housing market

June 2

China Purchasing Managers’ Index

Leading indicator that tends to capture inflection points in the economy

June 3

US capital goods orders

Insight into business investment as trade uncertainty hits sentiment

June 3

Europe Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Potential to influence European Central Bank (ECB) policy decisions

June 4

US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

Detailed look at demand side of labor market

June 5

Europe Producer Price Index (PPI)

Early look at price movements from producers’ perspective

June 6

US nonfarm payrolls

Details health of US job market

June 6

Europe ECB meeting

Insight into direction of European policymaking

June 6

Europe retail sales

Highlights state of European consumer

May 29

US gross domestic product (GDP)

Perspective on how economy was fairing ahead of the trade conflict

May 30

US personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

Fed’s preferred measure of inflation provides insight into direction of monetary policy

May 30

Germany, Italy, and Spain consumer price index (CPI)

Inflation measure helps give insight into direction of monetary policy by European Central Bank (ECB)

Related insights

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  • Footnotes

    1 Source: US Department of Trade, Yale Budget Lab, May 30, 2025.

    2 Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 30, 2025, based on the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) and the 10-year US Treasury Inflation Breakeven, which is the difference between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 10-Year US TIPS rate.

    3 Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 29, 2025, based on the option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index, which began the year at 80 basis points and was at 89 basis points at market close on May 29, 2025.

    4 Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 29, 2025. The year-to-date price return of the S&P 500 Index at market close on May 29, 2025, was 0.52%.

    5 Source: Bloomberg L.P., US Treasury Department, May 2025.

    6 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 30, 2025.

    7 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, April 30, 2025.

    8 Source: Bloomberg L.P., May 30, 2025, based on the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI All Country World ex USA Index.

    Investment risks

    The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested. 

    Important Information

    The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of 2 June, 2025.

    This document is marketing material and is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities.

    Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals, they are subject to change without notice and are not to be construed as investment advice.

    This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.

    The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility, and financial issuers.

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in consumer prices and is a commonly cited measure of inflation.

    The Europe Producer Price Index measures the average change in price of goods and services sold by manufacturers and producers in the European wholesale market.

    Fixed income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer’s credit rating.

    Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.

    The ISM Manufacturing Index is based on Institute of Supply Management surveys of manufacturing firms in the US, monitors employment, production, inventories, new orders, and supplier deliveries.

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics produces data on job openings, hires, and separations.

    The MSCI All Country World ex USA Index  is an unmanaged index considered representative of large- and mid-cap stocks across developed and emerging markets, excluding the US. The index is computed using the net return, which withholds applicable taxes for nonresident investors.

    Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), or the PCE Index, measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Expenditures included in the index are actual US household expenditures. Core PCE excludes food and energy prices.

    The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio measures a stock’s valuation by dividing its share price by its earnings per share.

    Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.

    Real yields are the returns that a bond investor earns from interest payments after accounting for inflation.

    The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.

    Spread represents the difference between two values or asset returns.

    The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.

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