Whitepaper

Short-term investment outlook - May Update

29 May 2020
Alessio de Longis
Alessio de Longis
Head of Investments and Senior Portfolio Manager
Short-term investment outlook - May Update

Factor portfolios based on quantitative characteristics such as value, momentum, quality, size and low volatility have historically generated attractive excess returns, outperforming market cap benchmarks on a risk-adjusted basis.

While single factors have outperformed over the long-term, they have also experienced strong cyclicality, occasionally leading to extended periods of underperformance driven by changing market environments.

We believe investors can exploit these distinct macro sensitivities among factors, developing dynamic rotation strategies driven by forward-looking macro regime frameworks, with the potential to outperform static multifactor portfolios while maintaining diversification to multiple factors. 

May 2020 update

  • We believe this macro environment, a global contraction, warrants a defensive portfolio posture. While global market sentiment has stabilised over the past month, it remains in a downward trend, suggesting markets are still expecting downward revisions to global growth expectations.
  • In this month’s special edition, we investigate the potential paths forward for the global economy and the likely evolution of our mcro regime framework over the next twelve months, conditional on the hypothetical evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. The resulting paths are our Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios.
  • For our base case, we would expect sideways markets with alternating bouts of volatility. Investors may want to consider average risk exposure, overweighting credit assets through an underweight position in equities and government bonds. 
Three hypothetical scenarios for how the pandemic may unfold
Three hypothetical scenarios for how the pandemic may unfold
For illustrative purposes only. There is no guarantee the scenarios will be realized in the future.

Read more in the whitepaper: Short-term investment outlook - May 2020 Update

To learn more about our approach, read our methodology white paper: Dynamic Multifactor Strategies - A Macro Regime approach

Understand how the Solutions team can help you here

  • The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

    Factor investing is an investment strategy in which securities are chosen based on certain characteristics and attributes that may explain differences in returns. There can be no assurance that performance will be enhanced or risk will be reduced for portfolios that seek to provide exposure to certain factors. Exposure to such investment factors may detract from performance in some market environments, perhaps for extended periods. Factor investing may underperform cap-weighted benchmarks and increase portfolio risk.

    There is no guarantee that low-volatility stocks will provide low volatility.

    Investing in securities of small capitalization companies involves greater risk than customarily associated with investing in larger, more established companies.

    A value style of investing is subject to the risk that the valuations never improve or that the returns will trail other styles of investing or the overall stock markets.

    Momentum style of investing is subject to the risk that the securities may be more volatile than the market as a whole or returns on securities that have previously exhibited price momentum are less than returns on other styles of investing.

  • These materials may contain statements that are not purely historical in nature but are “forward-looking statements.” These include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of income, yield or return or future performance targets. These forward-looking statements are based upon certain assumptions, some of which are described herein. Actual events are difficult to predict and may substantially differ from those assumed. All forward-looking statements included herein are based on information available on the date hereof and Invesco assumes no duty to update any forward-looking statement. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that estimated returns or projections can be realized, that forward-looking statements will materialize or that actual returns or results will not be materially lower than those presented.

    All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. As with all investments there are associated inherent risks. This should not be considered a recommendation to purchase any investment product. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions if they are uncertain whether an investment is suitable for them. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.