Uncommon Truths: Global Debt Review 2025
Key takeaways
Discover decades of debt dynamics
Take a visual journey through 70 years of global non-financial sector debt trends, revealing how public, corporate and household debt have evolved and responded to major economic events.
Spotlight on public sector surges
Recent years have seen a dramatic rise in public sector debt, especially around 2020, highlighting the significant impact of global crises on government borrowing and fiscal policy.
Global sector allocations
Invesco's model asset allocations for global sectors show a tilt toward bonds and away from equities and real estate, with specific regional and sectoral adjustments.
Global debt-to-GDP ratios continue to come down, after the sharp rise in seen in 2020 (debt is still rising but GDP is growing faster). Elevated debt ratios continue to be mainly a developed world phenomenon. The effect of higher interest rates on debt service ratios is starting to be seen.
The man from Mars may question whether planet Earth has a debt problem (if so, to whom is it owed?). However, the global financial crisis (GFC) showed that, even if net debt is zero, it is difficult to unwind that debt when there are so many interlinkages. We therefore assume that more debt brings more risk. Hence, our annual review of global debt. Now that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has published its 2024 data, we are able to deliver the next instalment.
With the projected rise in US government debt and the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) suggesting UK government debt could rise to 270% of GDP by the early 2070s (from 94% at the end of 2024 – see the OBR’s July 2025 Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Report), it is no surprise that investors are asking questions about debt.
