Fresh perspectives on economic trends and events impacting the global markets.
The Federal Reserve saw two members dissent on rates for the first time in 32 years and countries raced to secure US trade deals before a key tariff deadline.
As trade deals are struck before Trump’s Aug. 1 deadline, global investors have begun to look past tariff uncertainty and appear to expect an optimistic outcome for the second half of this year.
The economies, markets, and currencies of other countries may begin to catch up to the US, but it has unique qualities that sets it apart.
An expectation for improved trade policy clarity and continued spending on artificial intelligence helped boost the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high.
The Middle East dominated the news, but beyond oil and gas, most markets haven’t yet reacted heavily. Central banks remain in a wait-and-see mode.
Geopolitical uncertainty immediately triggered a flight to "safe haven” assets, but the US dollar was largely unaffected.
While policy and economic uncertainty are high, we are confident in our base case that non-US assets are increasingly attractive.
As tariffs were announced, rescinded, invalidated, and reinstated, the US financial markets and economy have shown remarkable resilience.
The proposed bill, deficit, debt ceiling, tariff threats, and rising bond yields, as well as the next move by the Federal Reserve, were top of mind.
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