Fresh perspectives on economic trends and events impacting the global markets.
It’s unknown how long the conflict will last, but oil and other commodity exposure may help hedge the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.
Markets are influenced by short‑term narratives and longer-term fundamentals. Emerging markets, Japan, and Europe have experienced improvements in both.
Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, we offer four possible scenarios for what we could face in the coming weeks and explore the possible reaction of various asset classes.
Markets largely expected last week’s tariff decision and the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, while new US economic data was weaker than anticipated.
On one side, weaker growth makes Fed easing more likely. On the other side, stronger growth supports an intact business cycle. Either can be supportive of markets if inflation stays contained.
Despite last week’s selloff in software stocks and other momentum-driven areas, we believe the fundamental backdrop remains supportive.
We got some clarity on the two big risks we outlined in our 2026 investment outlook: Federal Reserve independence and an AI bubble.
Geopolitical risks have risen, but bond spreads, economic and inflation data, and the US dollar haven’t signaled any major stock market issues.
The calendar flipped to a new year, but macro and market trends look largely the same: Resilience in the US economy, geopolitical shifts, and tariff talk.
Explore our investment insights on market movements and structural changes.
Participant outcomes can be optimized when decisions consider four key tenets.
Get insights on the economy, the markets, and investments from our experts.
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