Fresh perspectives on economic trends and events impacting the global markets.
Many assumed that if the Middle East conflict lasted more than a few weeks, it would be meaningfully negative for stocks. But markets appear to have absorbed the shock.
Major stock markets have corrected. But our preferred indicators suggest markets may still have work to do before a durable bottom is formed.
Periods of uncertainty, like the current Middle East conflict, have the potential to produce sharp rebounds that investors may not want to miss.
Our preferred economic and market indicators have become more challenged, but they aren’t flashing clear warning signs yet.
It’s unknown how long the conflict will last, but oil and other commodity exposure may help hedge the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.
Markets are influenced by short‑term narratives and longer-term fundamentals. Emerging markets, Japan, and Europe have experienced improvements in both.
Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, we offer four possible scenarios for what we could face in the coming weeks and explore the possible reaction of various asset classes.
Markets largely expected last week’s tariff decision and the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, while new US economic data was weaker than anticipated.
On one side, weaker growth makes Fed easing more likely. On the other side, stronger growth supports an intact business cycle. Either can be supportive of markets if inflation stays contained.
Explore our investment insights on market movements and structural changes.
Participant outcomes can be optimized when decisions consider four key tenets.
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