
Markets and Economy On the lookout for ‘brown shoots’ in the US economy
I’m hoping not to find signs of a wilting economy, but recessions have historically been caused by policy mistakes, so it’s important to be vigilant.
The top holdings in the S&P 500® Index have been generating a sizeable portion of the market’s gains. This narrow leadership casts doubts on the durability and strength of the market’s rebound. But on the bright side, this narrow market looks quite different than the stock market bubble of 1999. So where do we go from here? Market participation has tended to broaden as economies recover from weak environments.
Get my analysis in my chartbook: What the narrow market means.
I’m hoping not to find signs of a wilting economy, but recessions have historically been caused by policy mistakes, so it’s important to be vigilant.
A recession is a meaningful and lasting decline in economic activity that could include lower GDP, employment, and spending.
Recent history has shown that protectionist measures can hurt short-term economic growth but may not create a long-term hurdle for markets.
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The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of March 14, 2025. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations
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