insights Markets and economy

Fresh perspectives on economic trends and events impacting the global markets.

Economic and market signals stay steady despite oil shocks

Our preferred economic and market indicators have become more challenged, but they aren’t flashing clear warning signs yet.

March 16, 2026
Keeping long-term perspective as the Iran conflict continues

It’s unknown how long the conflict will last, but oil and other commodity exposure may help hedge the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.

March 9, 2026
What’s driving the gold price? … and other important questions

The gold price has reached a series of new all-time highs over the past year, driven partly by demand from investors.

March 6, 2026
Narratives and facts support non-US stock markets

Markets are influenced by short‑term narratives and longer-term fundamentals. Emerging markets, Japan, and Europe have experienced improvements in both.

March 3, 2026
US-Israel strikes on Iran: What investors need to know

Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, we offer four possible scenarios for what we could face in the coming weeks and explore the possible reaction of various asset classes.

March 3, 2026
Markets take Supreme Court tariff ruling, US-Iran tensions in stride

Markets largely expected last week’s tariff decision and the flare-up in US-Iran tensions, while new US economic data was weaker than anticipated.

February 23, 2026
Supreme Court decision unlikely to end US tariffs

The US Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, but alternative statutes may mean tariffs remain, although the market impact appears limited.

February 20, 2026
‘Heads I win, tails I win’ market environment

On one side, weaker growth makes Fed easing more likely. On the other side, stronger growth supports an intact business cycle. Either can be supportive of markets if inflation stays contained.

February 17, 2026
Finding silver linings in the market selloff

Despite last week’s selloff in software stocks and other momentum-driven areas, we believe the fundamental backdrop remains supportive.

February 9, 2026
Greater clarity on the main risks to the market

We got some clarity on the two big risks we outlined in our 2026 investment outlook: Federal Reserve independence and an AI bubble.

February 2, 2026
Kevin Warsh nominated to serve as the next Fed chair

If Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair, we don’t think he would prove as hawkish as markets seem to expect and his past actions seem to suggest.

January 30, 2026
Government shutdown: Will investors see market volatility?

Despite short-term market volatility, government shutdowns have tended to have little market impact on long-term investors.

January 30, 2026

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