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Alternatives Playbook

Our outlook, asset class views, and allocation guidance for private markets and liquid alternatives investments. It leverages our institutional investment expertise, deep resources, and global investment platform.

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Q4 2025 alternatives outlook

In the final quarter of the year, we remain neutral on how we’re allocating risk within our alternatives portfolio, primarily due to the combined impact of high equity valuations with an elevated cost of financing. This dynamic favors strategies levered to base rates such as private debt and hedge funds which are more defensive and results in a significant headwind for traditional buyout strategies. While base rates have begun a gradual path downwards to neutral, interest rates remain elevated and are anticipated to stay higher-for-longer as inflation remains persistent. We’re mindful of potential weakness beginning to form in the labor market and certain indicators, such as housing, experiencing a slowdown, following the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Despite this, credit spreads across asset classes continued to tighten substantially in the summer months, showcasing the demand for debt capital. We anticipate that easing by central banks, combined with a still-strong economy, will start to improve the outlook for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity and equity strategies, such as real estate and private equity. 

Asset class views

In general, we’re still more bullish on the defensive parts of the alternative investment universe, favoring private debt, real assets, and hedged strategies. Within asset classes, we look for those that don’t rely on leverage to generate returns, which we’ll reassess as base rates are lowered.

Private real assets outlook and positioning

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Private credit outlook and positioning

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Private equity outlook and positioning

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Hedge funds outlook and positioning

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Listed real assets and commodities

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Digital assets outlook and positioning

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Get an in-depth look at our alternatives outlook and positioning based on valuations, fundamentals, and secular trends.

Asset allocations to consider

Adding private market and liquid alternatives assets to an investment portfolio may be able to provide enhanced return potential, volatility mitigation,1 diversification,2 and income potential.3 Advisors are looking to increase their allocation to alternatives according to research from Cerulli Associates, in partnership with the Investments & Wealth Institute (IWI).4 (See asset allocations below.)

Advisor-reported current asset allocations
Advisor-reported optimal asset allocations

Sample alternatives allocations

For those thinking about adding alternative investments to portfolios, consider our sample allocations. The actual allocations will vary based on a client's objectives, risk tolerance, comfort with illiquid investments, and how alternatives fit into their overall portfolio. We also provide suggestions on how to consider funding new alternatives allocations using traditional portfolio assets.

Asset class Sample allocation Liquidity scale Role in portfolio Funding source Related products
Private equity 20 - 30% Low Growth 100% equities N/A
Private real assets 20 - 30% Low Growth
Income
Diversification2
50% equities
50% fixed income
Invesco Real Estate
Private credit 20 - 30% Low Income
Diversification2
30% equities
70% fixed income
XCRTX
 
Hedge funds 10 - 20% Medium Diversification2 100% fixed income N/A
Listed real assets and commodities 3 - 10% High Growth
Income
Diversification2
70% equities
30% fixed income
PDBC
MLPTX
Digital assets 0 - 7% High Growth
Diversification2
80% equities
20% fixed income
BTCO
QETH

These sample allocations are recommended starting points for how to incorporate an asset class into an alternatives bucket. Of the 13.3% reported optimal allocation to alternatives, the above sample allocations provide percentages for allocating among the alternatives asset classes. BTCO & QETH are not registered, do not intend to register or will be required to register, as investment companies under the Investment Company Act; therefore investors will not be provided any protections under such Act.

Get positioning for your equity and fixed income allocations in our monthly Portfolio Playbook

Alternatives at Invesco 

Diversify portfolios with public and private alternative assets to for enhanced return potential and to help mitigate risk.

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  • 1

    Enhanced return potential, volatility mitigation: Source: Invesco Real Estate. Trailing five years of data, Q1-2020–Q4-2024, last five years of quarterly returns annualized, updated semiannually, latest data available. Total returns and standard deviation (annualized) by asset class: Direct lending – 9.55% and 3.70; private real estate debt – 6.65% and 0.99; senior loans – 5.86% and 8.52; high yield – 4.21% and 10.72; private real estate equity – 3.17% and 5.49%; corporate bonds – 0.30% and 9.49%; commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – 0.95% and 5.41%; investment grade bonds – (0.33%) and 6.81%; Treasuries – (0.68%) and 7.10%; US equity 14.53% and 19.32%, respectively. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that any trends shown herein will continue. Standard deviation measures a portfolio’s or index’s range of total returns in comparison to the mean.

  • 2

    Diversification: Invesco Real Estate. Trailing five years of data, Q1-2020–Q4-2024, updated semiannually, latest data available. Private real estate debt direct correlation to other asset classes: private real estate debt – 1.00; direct lending – 0.19; senior loans – 0.05; high yield – 0.03; private real estate equity – 0.45; corporate bonds – (0.11); CMBS – (0.20); investment grade bonds – (0.24); Treasuries – (0.30); US equity – 0.07. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. There is no guarantee that any trends shown herein will continue. Correlation is the degree to which two investments have historically moved in relation to each other.

  • 3

    Income potential: Source: Invesco Real Estate. Trailing five years of data, Q1-2020–Q4-2024, last five years of quarterly returns annualized, updated semiannually, latest data available. 5-year average distribution yields: Direct lending – 10.30%; private real estate debt – 9.12%; senior loans – 7.31%; high yield – 6.89%, private real estate equity – 4.28%; corporate bonds – 3.95%; commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – 3.76%; investment grade Bonds – 3.24%; Treasuries – 2.68%. Past performance is not indicative of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index. There is no guarantee that any trends shown herein will continue.

  • 4

    Source: Cerulli Research: Advisors were asked. "Across your client portfolios, please estimate their typical alternatives asset allocation. How do you expect this to change in the next two years, and what would be the optimal asset allocation? Optimal asset allocation If there were no investment restrictions and clients had a strong knowledge of alternatives. Please estimate the optimal allocation for your core client segment.)" Other buckets provided were equities and fixed income. Survey conducted in Q2-2023. Latest data available.

  • 5

    Source: NCREIF, as of Aug. 2025. Calculation period covers the full life of the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) from the end of Q4-1977 to the end of Q2-2025. Over that time, income returns contributed 81% to total returns. The NPI, the broadest measure of private real estate index returns, is published by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries. It’s a quarterly, composite total return (based on appraisal values) for private commercial real estate properties held for investment purposes, including fund expenses but excluding leverage and management and advisory fees. All properties in the NPI have been acquired, at least in part, on behalf of tax-exempt institutional investors and held in a fiduciary environment. NCREIF data reflects the returns of a blended portfolio of institutional-quality real estate and doesn’t reflect the use of leverage or the impact of management and advisory fees. Past performance does not guarantee future results. An investment cannot be made into an index.

  • 6

    The yield curve plots interest rates at a set point in time of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates.

  • 7

    Source: Infrastructure Investor Fundraising Report Q3 2025, as of Sept. 30, 2025.

  • 8

    Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of June 30, 2025. Middle market direct lending represented by the Cliffwater Direct Lending Index current yield of 10%, broadly syndicated loans by the Morningstar LSTA US Lev Loan 100 current yield of 7.4%, and high yield bonds by the Bloomberg High Yield Bond Index current yield of 6.7%. The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross of fee performance of US middle market corporate loans, represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of Business Development Companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs. The Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index is designed to measure the performance of the 100 largest facilities in the US leveraged loan market. The Bloomberg High Yield Bond Index covers the universe of fixed-rate, non-investment grade debt. An investment cannot be made into an index.

  • 9

    Source: Bloomberg L.P. and Giliberto-Levy as of Mar. 31, 2025. Private real estate debt is represented by the floating rate Giliberto-Levy High Yield Real Estate Debt Index (GL-2). Correlations to real estate debt: global equities (-0.06), represented by the MSCI World Index, and US aggregate (-0.25), represented by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Total Return Index. Quarterly data from earliest common data, Q1-2012 to latest available data. An investment cannot be made directly into an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss. The Giliberto-Levy High-Yield Real Estate Debt Index (G-L 2) measures total return and its components for many forms of high-yield commercial real estate (CRE) debt, such as high-yield commercial mortgage debt performance for high-yield loans, such as mezzanine loans, preferred equity, and "B" notes. The MSCI World Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of stocks of developed countries. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Total Return Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US investment grade, fixed-rate bond market. An investment cannot be made into an index.

  • 10

    Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, SLOOS, as of Aug. 8, 2025.

  • 11

    Source: NCREIF ODCE INDEX, as of June 30, 2025.

  • 12

    Source: Deal value and exit volume are from Pitchbook US Global PE First Look, Q3 2025, as of Oct. 2, 2025. 

  • 13

    Source: Invesco and Bloomberg L.P., as of Dec. 31, 2024. Correlations are measured from Jan. 2000– Dec. 2024 between the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index and traditional assets: global fixed income (The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index 0.27) and global equities (MSCI ACWI 0.76). The HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index is designed to be representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. It’s comprised of all eligible hedge fund strategies falling within four principal strategies: equity hedge, event driven, macro/commodity trading advisor, and relative value arbitrage. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index that measures the performance of global investment grade fixed-rate debt markets. It includes a variety of bonds and securities from both developed and emerging markets. The MSCI All Country World (ACWI) Index is a market capitalization-weighted global equity index that tracks the performance of developed and emerging markets. An investment cannot be made directly into an index.

  • 14

    Bloomberg L.P. The markets entered a technical correction when the S&P 500 fell 10.1% on Feb. 19, 2025 to March 13, 2025. The decline continued into April, ultimately reaching a maximum decline of 18.9% on April 8, 2025.

  • 15

    Sources: Kinder Morgan 1Q25 Investor Presentation, as of Feb. 28, 2025; Bernstein, The Long View: A US Gas supercycle is coming...we upgrade gassy E&Ps, Jan. 15, 2025. There is no guarantee this outlook will come to pass.

  • 16

    Source: Coinmarketcap.com, as of Sept. 30, 2025.