Fixed Income

Global Fixed Income Strategy Monthly Report

April 11, 2025
Invesco Fixed Income
Invesco Fixed Income
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Get an analysis of important drivers of global fixed income markets, including macroeconomic trends, interest rates, currencies, and credit, in our monthly global strategy report. 

In our March  report:

  • Global macro strategy
    Uncertain US policy — especially around tariffs — has caused us to downgrade our 2025 US growth forecast. We don’t expect the economy to tip into a recession, however. We expect slower economic activity to lead to three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year — June, September, and December.
  • Credit
    The make-up of the high yield market has improved compared to the past, in terms of overall credit quality, fundamentals, and other key characteristics. Taken together, we feel more comfortable that the downside risk of the high yield asset class is lower than it has been historically.
  • Interest rate outlook
    US: We anticipate heightened rate volatility in the near term, driven by the new administration’s policies, but in the longer term, we expect the rates market to deliver strong excess returns compared to cash. 

    Europe: We maintain an overweight stance on European interest rates. The European Central Bank may be compelled to implement deeper rate cuts than are currently expected. 
  • Currency outlook
    US: We maintain a neutral view on the dollar, as we await the full scope of the Trump administration’s policies on trade, immigration, and government efficiency measures. 

    Europe: We’ve upgraded our euro stance to neutral, given the current uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. Longer term, we expect structurally higher European growth, however, potentially leading to increased European yields and a stronger euro.
  • The bottom line
    Invesco Fixed Income portfolio managers discuss the factors driving US investment grade and how they’re navigating the current fixed income environment.
Download the report

Catch up on the last few editions:

FAQs

Whether you’re looking for income, diversification, capital preservation or total returns, our global fixed income teams have the strategies, the scale and the flexibility needed to match your objectives as markets evolve.

We have more than 200 fixed income specialists who invest across regions, investment styles and capital structures. Their expertise spans the entire fixed income spectrum, covering credit, rates and currencies.

  • $460 billion in fixed income assets under management
  • 18 years investing in fixed income markets

Source: Invesco as of September 30, 2024.

Fixed income investments can offer several important benefits to investors:

  • Diversification: Adding fixed income securities to a portfolio can help diversify it and reduce its overall risk, as bonds typically behave differently to other investment instruments like equities.
  • Risk reduction: Fixed income investments are deemed less risky than stocks, as the issuer is contractually obliged to meet the income payments and repay the principal sum on the redemption date. In the event of bankruptcy, fixed income instruments also sit higher up the capital structure than equities. This means that the issuer will meet its debt obligations before looking after its shareholders.    
  • Liquidity: Many fixed income securities are highly liquid and can be easily bought and sold in the market.

While fixed income securities are deemed less risky than equities, there are still some key things to look out for:

  • Interest rate risk: When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. This is because, in the new higher rate environment, new bonds will be issued on more attractive terms. As such, investors looking to sell their existing bonds will need to do so at a discount in order to compete.
  • Inflation risk: When investors buy a bond, they commit to tying their money up for a set period of time. If inflation is high or rises during the lifetime of the loan, its value will be eroded and their money will have less purchasing power when it is repaid on the redemption date. Inflation also erodes the purchasing power of the income earned.
  • Credit risk: When you invest in a business or government, there is always a risk that they will go bankrupt and fail to repay the loan. Furthermore, if they run into difficulties, they may struggle to meet interest payments and default on their obligations. Fixed income investors should carry out thorough credit analysis before buying a bond to make sure the issuer is financially sound.
  • Market risk: If an investor is unable to hold a bond until maturity and needs to sell it on the secondary market, price fluctuations resulting from the overall performance of financial markets could lead to losses.

Related insights

Important information

  • The opinions expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change.

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