Get an analysis of important drivers of global fixed income markets, including macroeconomic trends, interest rates, currencies, and credit, in our monthly global strategy report.
In this edition:
We’ve revised our US growth outlook up, but expect sticky inflation. Europe should see better growth momentum, but UK growth may soften.
US: We’re underweight US interest rates and expect them to modestly rise over the first half of the year.
Europe: We’re neutral on European rates and expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to stay on hold in the near term. We believe risks are skewed toward lower versus higher rates.
US: We have a long-term underweight view of the US dollar and expect narrowing interest rate differentials to reduce its attractiveness.
Europe: We’re overweight the euro based on the expected US dollar weakness and an improved European growth outlook.
Geopolitics are front and center as we look ahead into 2026. Against these challenges, get our 2026 global credit outlook for investment grade, high yield, emerging markets, and Asian credit.
The world is changing, and sovereign investors see both risks and opportunities from these shifts — from emerging tensions over trade and tariffs, to China’s advancements in strategic sectors, to the changing role of fixed income in portfolios. Explore insights from our survey.
Rate spikes, data surprises, and tariffs are creating uncertainty. Income seekers may want to consider floating rates and bank loans.
The Invesco Fixed Income and Insurance Solutions teams share their outlook on the bond market and best ideas for insurance portfolios.
Important information
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The opinions expressed are based on current market conditions and are subject to change.
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