Tactical Asset Allocation

August 2025 update

Our framework remains in a contraction regime for the 14th consecutive month. The latest US GDP and payroll reports confirm a clear slowdown in private demand and job growth. We’re maintaining a defensive posture, overweighting bonds relative to stocks, favoring defensive sectors and a moderate underweight in developed ex-US and emerging markets stocks. In fixed income, maintain moderate duration overweight and underweight credit risk. We remain positioned for US dollar depreciation.

Get the full story

See what our macro regime framework is telling us — and what we’re doing in response — in our August 2025 Tactical Asset Allocation update.

Topics include:

• Macro update —  Private sector demand and labor markets are softening, and credit card delinquencies are rising, pointing to challenges ahead for consumer spending.
• Markets — Global risk appetite has stabilized but remains on a weakening trend, pointing to lower growth expectations
• Investment positioning — See what we’re favoring in stock, bond, and currency markets.