Asset allocation Tactical Asset Allocation

July 2026 update

Our framework continues to suggest the global economy is in a slowdown regime, with growth above its long-term trend and decelerating. Easing energy prices and a more explicitly hawkish stance have resulted in falling market-implied inflation expectations. Now, rising real rates reflect tighter financial conditions rather than inflation risk, reinforcing an ongoing deceleration in growth, and a regime increasingly characterized by policy constraint rather than inflation uncertainty. Our Global Tactical Asset Allocation Model¹ remains moderately overweight equities relative to fixed income, with an emphasis on geographical and sector diversification within asset classes.

Get the full story

See what our macro regime framework is telling us — and what we’re doing in response — in our July 2026 Tactical Asset Allocation update.

Topics include:

• Macro update — Inflation risks moderate as growth risks build.
• Markets — AI-fueled market returns have paused following months of outperformance. Strong fundamentals continue to provide a tailwind for equities.
• Investment positioning — See what we’re favoring in stock, bond, and currency markets.