Important information
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Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.
Diversification does not guarantee a return or eliminate the risk of loss.
Fixed income investments are subject to credit risk of the issuer and the effects of changing interest rates. Interest rate risk refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. An issuer may be unable to meet interest and/or principal payments, thereby causing its instruments to decrease in value and lowering the issuer’s credit rating.
Alternative products typically hold more non-traditional investments and employ more complex trading strategies, including hedging and leveraging through derivatives, short selling and opportunistic strategies that change with market conditions. Investors considering alternatives should be aware of their unique characteristics and additional risks from the strategies they use. Like all investments, performance will fluctuate. You can lose money.
In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic and political conditions.
The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.
Investments in companies located or operating in Greater China are subject to the following risks: nationalization, expropriation, or confiscation of property, difficulty in obtaining and/or enforcing judgments, alteration or discontinuation of economic reforms, military conflicts, and China’s dependency on the economies of other Asian countries, many of which are developing countries.
The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI™ is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures change in consumer prices as determined by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Disinflation, a slowing in the rate of price inflation, describes instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.
The Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” is a chart that the central bank uses to illustrate its outlook for the path of interest rates.
The Eurozone (also known as the euro area or euroland) is an economic and monetary union of 18 European Union member states that have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency.
The federal funds rate is the rate at which banks lend balances to each other overnight.
Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.
Headline inflation is the raw inflation figure reported through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core inflation is the change in the costs of goods and services, but it does not include those from the food and energy sectors. This measure of inflation excludes these items because their prices are much more volatile.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a monthly survey of consumer confidence levels in the United States conducted by the University of Michigan.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) includes a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households in the US. The PCE is used as a mechanism to gauge how much earned income of households is being spent on current consumption for various goods and services. Core PCE excludes the prices of food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure.
PMI (formerly Purchasing Managers Index), a commonly cited indicator of the manufacturing sectors’ economic health, is calculated by the Institute of Supply Management.
Tightening monetary policy includes actions by a central bank to curb inflation.
The yield curve plots interest rates, at a set point in time, of bonds having equal credit quality but differing maturity dates to project future interest rate changes and economic activity.
The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of October 2, 2023. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.