US election update: The race is on

The so-called “Super Tuesday” series of state primaries is historically viewed as a day to sort out messy presidential campaign fields and establish a clearer competition through the remaining primary season. But this year, the electorate sent a strange mixed message — they seem anxious to get on with a general election rematch between current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, but they’re also telling pollsters that they’re dreading a rematch of the 2020 election.

Trump was the lone Republican standing after Nikki Haley suspended her campaign the day after Super Tuesday, and he secured enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee just a week later. The last challenge within the Democratic party fizzled out when Dean Phillips suspended his campaign and Biden won everywhere except American Samoa.

"Uncommitted" protesters haven’t moved the needle for Democrats

Biden has, however, faced organized protests in some states where Democratic primary voters are concerned with the US policy towards Israel. Protestors asked voters to vote “uncommitted” instead of Biden, but the results seem weak when viewed historically. In the example of Michigan, the percentage of “uncommitted” voters in 2024 was dramatically less than it was in 2008.

“Never-Trump” voters weren’t a factor in the Republican campaign

In terms of the Republican drama (or lack thereof), Trump has now become the presumptive nominee and pundits agree that barring some GOP Convention uprising this August, he will be on the ballot for the third straight election. While Nikki Haley did make history as the first female Republican to win a state primary (Vermont), the “never-Trump” voters failed to turn out in sufficient numbers to boost her campaign.¹

What do polls tell us about Trump vs. Biden matchup?

By some measures, Trump’s support in both the primary and the general seems as strong as ever. Headwinds for Biden are significant with Trump leading in the key battleground polls as of March.²

And when you ask voters which candidate they trust most to lead the country on key issues, Trump was the answer to many questions.³

Polling snapshot: Who would do better?

Question: On a few issues and personal characteristics, do you think that Donald Trump or Joe Biden would be better?

Working firmly in Biden’s favor was the question of who would be best to deal with “the issue of abortion” where the incumbent president has a 12-point lead. You could almost feel the president’s campaign advisors kick into high gear when the Alabama Supreme Court ruling on in-vitro fertilization was released and set off a firestorm of political grandstanding on both sides.⁴ Biden’s highest polling issue was a 17-point lead on “treating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights.”

Regardless of the Alabama court decision and the resulting changes in law, expect Democrats to do everything in their power to make abortion a central focus of the coming general election campaign. Much can change through the spring and summer, but the president will seemingly need November to be a “choice” election instead of a referendum on his first term in order to continue to call 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue his home.

With contributions from Cogent Strategies.