Markets and Economy Greater clarity on the main risks to the market
We got some clarity on the two big risks we outlined in our 2026 investment outlook: Federal Reserve independence and an AI bubble.
February 2, 2026
Multi Asset
2022 long-term capital market assumption
The 2022 Capital Markets Assumptions show the global economy outlook is shaping up to be a lot brighter. However, risks remain as pre-pandemic challenges begin to resurface.
- Our Global Market Strategist team anticipates an improving economic environment with moderate growth towards longer-term trend rates in 2022 as fiscal stimulus declines and the economy normalizes.
- Inflation will remain elevated in 2022, but higher inflation is good news for real assets like real estate, infrastructure and commodities which offer diversification benefits for asset owners.
- While the risk of a slowdown remains in 2022, we’ve maintained a higher risk posture relative to our benchmark. Despite hawkish monetary policy, our framework points toward an expansionary regime.
Read the latest edition
Explore the latest enhancements to our 2022 capital markets assumptions.
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