Spreads have spent most of the last two years very close to the bottom of their historical range. Investors who maintained higher levels of credit risk have continued to earn incremental returns over that period. We have chosen to reduce credit risk in our portfolio, with our level of credit spread falling faster than the index, foregoing that incremental return to protect against spread widening and to build the liquidity we would need to invest at better prices.
We are therefore defensively positioned, with higher-than-usual exposure to A-rated securities and limited exposure to BBB-rated bonds. Our sector allocation favours defensive industries like utilities, telecoms and technology, over cyclicals such as industrials and autos. We retain modest exposure to Additional Tier 1 bonds (AT1s), corporate hybrids and subordinated insurance securities, reflecting a selective rather than wholesale retreat from credit risk.
Where we stand today: Constructive on duration
On duration, we hold a modest overweight relative to the index. Government yields are a lot higher than in 2021 and, the recent flattening notwithstanding, the curve is substantially steeper. The risk to reward has improved, in our opinion. In this current uptick of geopolitical risk, interest rate markets have not played their traditional role as a risk hedge, benefitting from flight-to-safely. But we think that relationship could re-assert itself if investors see a threat to growth.
Recent performance in context
Credit has remained strong for longer than we expected. Spreads rallied in 2024 and have stayed near historic lows throughout 2024 and 2025, and investors who maintained higher levels of credit risk continued to earn incremental return. We underperformed our peer group in both years as a result, returning 4.4% against 4.9% in 2024, and 2.6% against 2.8% in 2025.
Over the medium and long term, the picture is different. We rank first quartile over five years and since inception within our peer group. Over the past 10 years, our investment approach has outperformed the benchmark on 78% of rolling three-year periods4, a measure of consistency that matters as much as any single year's return.
Our defensive posture may continue to lag if spreads remain compressed, but our rationale is consistent with an approach that has successfully navigated the Global Financial Crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
With the opportunity cost of holding higher-quality credit relatively low, we believe we are well placed to protect capital if conditions deteriorate and to deploy it at better prices if spreads widen.
After 20 years, that discipline - accepting short-term trade-offs to preserve long-term positioning - remains the consistent thread through our track record. It has not paid off in every period. It has paid off over time.