2025 Investment Outlook

We expect growth to continue to slow in the near term, followed by a reacceleration through 2025, which should foster a favorable environment for risk assets globally.

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Executive summary

Many of the world’s central banks, having largely succeeded in curbing inflation, are now easing monetary policies with the aim of stimulating growth. In 2025, we anticipate signs of economic deceleration to be counteracted by the supportive impact of the global rate-cutting cycle. In other words, we think we are seeing a soft landing. We expect a near-term growth slowdown followed by a reacceleration through 2025. This should create a favorable environment for global risk assets.

Latest market outlook

Our base case is that global growth reaches near potential rates through 2025, supported by policy easing and real wage growth in many major developed economies. But the path ahead could shift under different assumptions.

Trend growth then reacceleration

We expect the Federal Reserve to cut its policy rate to neutral (around 3.5%) by year-end 2025, and US growth to decelerate to trend but then reaccelerate and outperform most developed markets. We expect growth in Europe and the UK to improve from their current relative weakness. Chinese growth remains below trend, but recent stimulus has raised the probability of an upside surprise.

Sources: Invesco and Macrobond, as of September 30, 2024.

Upside scenario: Growth Goldilocks

There’s a possibility that falling inflation and rate cuts could help accomplish a “Goldilocks” environment (not too hot, not too cold) across most economies. This could foster greater regional participation versus our base case and lead to a period of growth at potential across most major economies while inflation remains near target rates. China could also experience an upward surprise that helps lift emerging markets.

Downside scenario: Growth undershoots

There’s a possibility that weak patches in recent data could presage a sustained growth deceleration in key economies, including the US. In this scenario, as activity falters, central banks would enact more rate cuts to counteract the growth slowdown, resulting in below-trend performance in the first half of the year, followed by a pick-up towards trend in the latter half of the year.

Asset allocation implications

Overall, we expect a conducive environment for risk assets, particularly in non-US developed markets, small capitalization stocks, and value sectors in the US, with European assets likely to outperform due to favorable valuations and cyclical sector weightings.

Areas we favor

  • Developed markets non-US, especially UK and Japan domestics
  • Small- and mid-caps, cyclical sectors, and value, including US

Areas we favor

  • Modest duration overweight
  • High yield, bank loans

Areas we favor

  • Base metals
  • Japanese yen
  • British pound

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