Alternatives platform

Capital Market Assumptions (CMAs)

Invesco Investment Solutions develops CMAs that provide long-term estimates for the behavior of major asset classes globally. The team is dedicated to designing outcome-oriented, multi-asset portfolios that meet the specific goals of investors. The assumptions, which are based on a 10-year investment time horizon, are intended to guide these strategic asset class allocations. We also utilize 5-year CMAs to give a half-cycle view. For each selected asset class, we develop assumptions for estimated return, estimated standard deviation of return (volatility), and estimated correlation with other asset classes.

Fixed income returns are composed of; the average of the starting (initial) yield and the expected yield for bonds, estimated changes in valuation given changes in the Treasury yield curve, roll return which reflects the impact on the price of bonds that are held over time, and a credit adjustment which estimates the potential impact on returns from credit rating downgrades and defaults. Equity returns are composed of; a dividend yield, calculated using dividend per share divided by price per share, buyback yield, calculated as the percentage change in shares outstanding resulting from companies buying back or issuing shares, valuation change, the expected change in value given the current Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio and the assumption of reversion to the long-term average P/E ratio, and the estimated growth of earnings based on the long-term average real GDP per capita and inflation. Volatility estimates for the different asset classes, we use rolling historical quarterly returns of various market benchmarks. Given that benchmarks have differing histories within and across asset classes, we normalize the volatility estimates of shorter-lived benchmarks to ensure that all series are measured over similar time periods.

For additional details regarding the methodology used to develop these estimates, please see our white paper Capital Market Assumptions: A building block methodology.

This information is not intended as a recommendation to invest in a specific asset class or strategy, or as a promise of future performance. These asset class assumptions are passive, and do not consider the impact of active management. Given the complex risk-reward trade-offs involved, we encourage you to consider your judgment and quantitative approaches in setting strategic allocations to asset classes and strategies. This material is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for tax advice.

References to future returns are not promises or estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Assumptions and estimates are provided for illustrative purposes only. They should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell securities. Forecasts of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Estimated returns can be conditional on economic scenarios. In the event a particular scenario comes to pass, actual returns could be significantly higher or lower than these estimates.

Indices are unmanaged and used for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to be indicative of the performance of any strategy. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The CMAs included are based on Invesco’s return expectations for the asset classes shown. The indices referenced are included as proxies for the asset classes and have been selected because they are well known and are easily recognisable by investors. The inclusion of these indices is not linked to the promotion of any investment products or services.

The value of investments and any income will fluctuate (this may partly be the result of exchange rate fluctuations) and investors may not get back the full amount invested.

Alternative investment products, including private equity, may involve a higher degree of risk, may engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices  that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual portfolios, often charge higher fees which may offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager.  There is often no secondary market for private equity interests, and none is expected to develop.  There may be restrictions on transferring interests in such investments.

Where individuals or the business have expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice.