The political winds of war

Andy Blocker, Head of US Government Affairs, Invesco

Jennifer Flitton, Vice President of Federal Government Affairs
 

Key takeaways

Split opinions
President Joe Biden seems to be getting generally good marks from the foreign policy establishment for his response to the Ukraine crisis, but at home, opinions are split on his job performance.

Inflation concerns
It seems clear that domestic issues are weighing down the president’s overall approval rating. Chief among all issues? Inflation.

Political scientists have long observed the political tailwinds of war and international turmoil on a president’s popularity at home. Indeed, the United States has a long tradition of its citizens rallying around the Commander in Chief during difficult times. President George W. Bush defied the historical trend for first-term presidents when Republicans gained — rather than lost — congressional seats during his first mid-term in large part due to 9/11 and the way the country came together. So, will President Joe Biden benefit at home from the war abroad?

Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, and while Biden seems to be getting generally good marks from the foreign policy establishment for his response to the international crisis, it does not seem to be paying dividends with the general public or his domestic policy approval ratings.

With the response to the war in Ukraine not providing any domestic political benefit, it seems clear that it is in fact domestic issues that are weighing down the president’s overall approval rating. Chief among all issues? Inflation. NBC News recently asked Americans what Biden’s top priority should be between battling inflation and ending the war; respondents overwhelmingly said battling inflation (68% to 29%).¹  A March Wall Street Journal poll found that 63% of Americans disapprove of Biden’s management of the surge in inflation, and when asked whose policies they trust to solve the issue, they prefer Republicans more than Democrats by a 19-point margin.²

To their credit, the senior communications staff for the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress have attempted to offer up many narratives and talking points to avoid blame for rising costs on everything from eggs and milk to gas and shipping. “Putin’s Price Hike” seems to be the latest messaging exercise, and while there is evidence to suggest the war in Ukraine is a contributor to surging gas prices, the public again does seem to continue to blame Biden for the economic pain they are feeling.³

There is little doubt that, in spite of this troubling polling, Democrats will continue their strategy of throwing any and all arguments and policy solutions against the wall to see what sticks in lowering the 40-year high inflation numbers. And while many economists are expecting inflation to gradually start coming down, there may be little the president or his party can do to expedite this expected trend line enough between now and November.

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