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Portfolio Playbook: Bracing for the impact of tariffs

Economic data likely won't reflect tariffs for months. In May, we’re still favoring bonds, quality US stocks, and an increased exposure to international stocks. Optimize your portfolios with our monthly outlook and allocation guidance.

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Global stock markets recovered but sentiment deteriorates.

The Trump administration’s 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs spurred a sharp recovery in global stocks, but the policy uncertainty persists. The administration’s current approach to trade is planting the seeds for potentially meaningful shifts in economic and market trends. Surveys and financial markets are already pointing to a deteriorating outlook. Hard economic data, however, will likely take months to reflect the impact of global tariff uncertainty on consumer spending and investments.

Global market sentiment resumed its decline, and it is currently at lowest level registered since June 2023, keeping our macro regime framework in a contraction regime for the 11th consecutive month.1

Business cycle

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  • Elevated recession risk
  • Resilient “hard” US economic data
  • Rapidly deteriorating sentiment

Risk profile

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  • Weakening US sentiment 
  • Deteriorating global risk appetite
  • Persistent policy uncertainty

Policy implications

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  • Looming near-term price shock
  • Plunging long-term inflation expectations
  • Increasing likelihood of Fed rate cut

Business cycle

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  • “Soft landing” for economy
  • Resilient growth
  • Contained inflation

Risk profile

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  • Above-trend global economic rate 
  • Improved policy backdrop
  • Risk-on sentiment

Policy implications

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  • Contained inflation
  • Easing Fed policy 

Business cycle

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  • Deteriorating sentiment
  • Rising trade and monetary policy uncertainty
  • Reaccelerating inflation
  • Prolonged recession

Risk profile

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  • Deteriorating leading economic indicators
  • Flight to quality 

Policy implications

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  • Tightening Fed policy

Asset allocations to consider:
In May, we’re still favoring inflation-protected securities, high quality US stocks, and increased international exposure.

A challenge for tactical investors is preparing for the expected and anticipating the unexpected. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) framework from the Invesco Solutions team is designed to enhance a long-term strategic asset allocation (SAA) by making portfolio tilts based on near-term market views.

The tactical, dynamic factor rotation shown below is also utilized in the Invesco Russell 1000® Dynamic Multifactor ETF (OMFL).



About our allocations

  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



About our allocations

  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



About our allocations

  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.

Footnotes

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    Source: Invesco Solutions research and calculations. The Global Risk Appetite Cycle Indicator (GRACI) is a proprietary measure of the markets’ risk sentiment. A reading above (below) zero signals a positive (negative) compensation for risk-taking in global capital markets in the recent past. The reading on June 30, 2023 was 0.03 and on April 30, 2025 it was 0.15. Past performance does not guarantee future results.