Optimize your portfolios

Portfolio Playbook: Broadening markets

Our framework suggests improving growth. In December, we’re overweighting stocks with a tilt toward value and small-and mid-caps. Optimize your portfolios with our monthly outlook and allocation guidance.

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Supportive environment with upside potential for stocks

The global economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite noticeable headwinds from global trade policy uncertainty, fear of renewed inflationary pressures, and a significant deceleration in employment growth. While we’re in the later stages of the economic cycle, we believe the environment of sound growth and benign inflation remains supportive of risky assets, with more upside potential in stocks than credit.

The macroeconomic backdrop has continued to improve at a gradual and steady pace. The US economy has been broadly stable, while growth is gaining momentum in the rest of the world, led by developed markets outside the US. Leading economic indicators have continued to improve at a noticeable clip in the eurozone and the UK, and growth in emerging markets has remained stable. This favorable global backdrop is seen in upward revisions in earnings expectations across all regions — a sign of broader participation in the growth cycle across countries and economic sectors.

Our current portfolio tilt towards value and small- and mid-cap stocks, and broad diversification in US and non-US stocks, should help provide better downside protection from cheaper stock valuations, tailwinds from US dollar depreciation, and broader participation in stock sectors. 

Business cycle

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  • Recession doesn’t appear imminent
  • Broad-based economic statistics not collapsing 
  • Credit spreads still contained

Risk profile

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  • Risk appetite is improving
  • Leading economic indicators signal an improving global growth environment

Policy implications

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  • Inflation expectations are contained
  • Policy easing is likely to continue

Business cycle

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  • Resilient growth
  • Contained inflation

Risk profile

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  • Above-trend global economic rate
  • Risk-on sentiment

Policy implications

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  • Contained inflation
  • Significant Fed easing

Business cycle

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  • Deteriorating sentiment
  • Rising trade and monetary policy uncertainty
  • Reaccelerating inflation
  • Prolonged recession

Risk profile

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  • Deteriorating leading economic indicators
  • Flight to quality 

Policy implications

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  • Tightening Fed policy 

Asset allocations to consider: 
Stock overweight in December with a tilt towards value and small- and mid-caps.

A challenge for tactical investors is preparing for the expected and anticipating the unexpected. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) framework from the Invesco Solutions team is designed to enhance a long-term strategic asset allocation (SAA) by making portfolio tilts based on near-term market views.

The tactical, dynamic factor rotation shown below is also utilized in the Invesco Russell 1000® Dynamic Multifactor ETF (OMFL).



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.



  • The Invesco Solutions team develops portfolios for client-oriented outcomes over multiple time horizons. Our tactical asset allocation (TAA), regime-based framework dynamically adjusts exposures to asset classes, regions, sectors, and factors, to create multi-asset portfolios designed for the prevailing macroeconomic environment. Strategic asset allocation (SAA) positioning is derived from our rigorous investment process, which consists of long-term capital market assumptions (CMAs), portfolio optimization, and risk management.