Tactical Asset Allocation: January 2022
Synopsis
Following last month’s regime transition, our framework continues to suggest the global economy is in a slowdown regime.
Historically, this economic backdrop has led to modest but positive returns across asset classes, with a convergence in performance between growth-sensitive and defensive assets, as compensation for growth risk diminishes.
We maintain a neutral risk stance relative to our benchmark,1 with an overweight to equites versus fixed income but a tilt toward defensive equity factors (low volatility and quality) and sectors, and an overweight to developed market equities relative to emerging markets. We are overweight duration and neutral on credit risk, with an exposure to short and intermediate maturities.
Macro update
Following last month’s regime transition, our framework continues to suggest the global economy is in a slowdown regime, with growth above its long-term trend and decelerating (Figure 1a, 1b & 2). Market participants are revising down future growth expectations as the economy transitions its engine from fiscal stimulus to private sector demand. Hawkish rhetoric by the Federal Reserve has contributed on the margin to this repricing of future growth, causing global yield curves to flatten and price-in very low nominal and real long-term rates. The emergence of the Omicron COVID-19 variant has increased the uncertainty of growth and inflation expectations for the next few quarters, justifying this softening in risk appetite. Omicron is an additional catalyst for lower growth expectations due to selective lockdown measures in parts of Europe and more stringent measures in China, where authorities pursue a zero-tolerance COVID policy. On the positive side, preliminary evidence from countries first hit by Omicron (South Africa and UK) suggest that while this variant is far more contagious, it’s been less severe in terms of symptoms and hospitalization rates (in part because of the incrementally higher proportion of vaccinated population). Hence, this wave may have a shorter duration and less severe economic impact than previous ones.
Footnotes
- Global 60/40 benchmark (60% MSCI ACWI / 40% Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg USD hedged)
当資料ご利用上のご注意
当資料は情報提供を目的として、インベスコ・アセット・マネジメント株式会社（以下、「当社」）のグループに属する運用プロフェッショナルが英文で作成したものであり、法令に基づく開示書類でも金融商品取引契約の締結の勧誘資料でもありません。内容には正確を期していますが、必ずしも完全性を当社が保証するものではありません。また、当資料は信頼できる情報に基づいて作成されたものですが、その情報の確実性あるいは完結性を表明するものではありません。当資料に記載されている内容は既に変更されている場合があり、また、予告なく変更される場合があります。当資料には将来の市場の見通し等に関する記述が含まれている場合がありますが、それらは資料作成時における作成者の見解であり、将来の動向や成果を保証するものではありません。また、当資料に示す見解は、インベスコの他の運用チームの見解と異なる場合があります。過去のパフォーマンスや動向は将来の収益や成果を保証するものではありません。当社の事前の承認なく、当資料の一部または全部を使用、複製、転用、配布等することを禁じます。
20220331-2102267-JP
そのほかの投資関連情報はこちらをご覧ください。https://www.invesco.com/jp/ja/institutional/insights.html