Title
Opportunities in commodities amid volatility
Speaker
Kathy Kriskey
Head of Alternatives Product Strategy
Right now, commodities are being driven by fast‑moving catalysts that continue to create compelling opportunities across the sector. Supply‑chain realignments, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and technical market drivers are introducing pockets of near‑term volatility, but they may also offer attractive entry points. Taken together, these factors reinforce the case for commodities as both a long‑term strategic allocation and a source of tactical opportunity.
Gold: Supportive long-term momentum
In precious metals, gold has been consolidating around the $5,000‑per‑ounce level following a sharp pullback,1 yet the broader trend remains constructive. China’s central bank logged its fifteenth consecutive month of gold purchases in January, and regulators continue encouraging institutions to limit or reduce exposure to US Treasuries.
Importantly, markets largely view the recent correction as a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend, with long‑term drivers —like persistent central‑bank buying, gradual de‑dollarization, and consistent safe‑haven demand — all still firmly in place.
Energy: Volatility from US-Iran negotiations
Energy markets remain headline‑driven as investors follow developments in US–Iran negotiations. With diplomacy uncertain, markets have shifted into a wait‑and‑see mode, pricing in the risk that tensions could rise if talks stall. The US has increased its military presence in the region, contributing to the spike in crude volatility seen in early February. Meanwhile, India’s pivot away from Russian crude toward greater cooperation with the US could tighten Western oil markets. Still, Russian seaborne exports remain resilient, supported by strong Chinese demand.
Base metals: Seasonal lag tempers long-term bulls
Across base metals, volatility persists, but the medium‑term outlook is still constructive. Temporary softness from Chinese buyers is cyclical, not structural, and key demand drivers like electrification, grid expansion, and infrastructure upgrades — remain intact, with renewed strength expected once activity normalizes after the Lunar New Year.
PDBC: Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF
DBB: Invesco DB Base Metals Fund
Given these dynamics, commodities continue to play an important role in diversified portfolios. Investors may want to consider Invesco’s commodity ETFs — particularly PDBC, a broad‑based strategy offering exposure to energy, metals, and agriculture, and DBB, Invesco’s industrial metals fund.
Important Information
1 Source: Bloomberg L.P. as of Feb. 13, 2026. Gold is represented by XAUUSD, the ticker symbol for spot gold (XAU) traded against the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, representing the cost of one troy ounce of gold in US dollars.
Not a Deposit | Not FDIC Insured | Not Guaranteed by the Bank | May Lose Value | Not Insured by any Federal Government Agency
Diversification does not guarantee a profit or eliminate the risk of loss.
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made into an index.
This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
The opinions expressed are those of Invesco and are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.
There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. Index-based ETFs are not actively managed. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Both index-based and actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply. The Fund's return may not match the return of the Index. The Funds are subject to certain other risks. Please see the current prospectus for more information regarding the risks associated with an investment in the Funds.
Shares are not individually redeemable, and owners of the Shares may acquire those Shares from the Fund and tender those Shares for redemption to the Fund in Creation Unit aggregations only, typically consisting of 10,000, 20,000, 25,000, 50,000, 75,000, 80,000, 100,000, or 150,000 Shares.
Invesco Distributors, Inc. 02/26 NA5219330
Right now, commodities are being driven by fast‑moving catalysts that continue to create compelling opportunities across the sector. Supply‑chain realignments, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and technical market drivers are introducing pockets of near‑term volatility, but they may also offer attractive entry points. Taken together, these factors reinforce the case for commodities as both a long‑term strategic allocation and a source of tactical opportunity.
In precious metals, gold has been consolidating around the $5,000‑per‑ounce level following a sharp pullback,1 yet the broader trend remains constructive. China’s central bank logged its 15th consecutive month of gold purchases in January, and regulators continue encouraging institutions to limit or reduce exposure to US Treasuries.
Importantly, markets largely view the recent correction as a healthy consolidation within an ongoing uptrend, with long‑term drivers — like persistent central‑bank buying, gradual de‑dollarization, and consistent safe‑haven demand — all still firmly in place.
Energy markets remain headline driven as investors follow developments in US–Iran negotiations. With diplomacy uncertain, markets have shifted into a wait‑and‑see mode, pricing in the risk that tensions could rise if talks stall. The US has increased its military presence in the region, contributing to the spike in crude volatility seen in early February. Meanwhile, India’s pivot away from Russian crude toward greater cooperation with the US could tighten Western oil markets. Still, Russian seaborne exports remain resilient, supported by strong Chinese demand.
Across base metals, volatility persists, but the medium‑term outlook is still constructive. Temporary softness from Chinese buyers is cyclical, not structural, and key demand drivers like electrification, grid expansion, and infrastructure upgrades, remain intact, with renewed strength expected once activity normalizes after the Lunar New Year.
Given these dynamics, commodities continue to play an important role in diversified portfolios. Investors may want to consider Invesco’s commodity ETFs — particularly Invesco Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF (PDBC), a broad‑based strategy offering exposure to energy, metals, and agriculture, and Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (DBB), Invesco’s industrial metals fund.
Interest rates, volatility, and tech and AI are key themes for bonds in 2026. Our Head of Investment Grade Portfolio Management explains why.
What AI-driven earnings, potential rate cuts, tight credit spreads, and mergers and acquisitions activity may mean for bond portfolio positioning.
Our insights on strong bond returns, Federal Reserve rate cuts, tight credit spreads, and investor trends in a resilient economic environment.
Important information
NA5219330
PDBC
There are risks involved with investing in ETFs, including possible loss of money. Actively managed ETFs do not necessarily seek to replicate the performance of a specified index. Actively managed ETFs are subject to risks similar to stocks, including those related to short selling and margin maintenance. Ordinary brokerage commissions apply. The Fund's return may not match the return of the Index. The Fund is subject to certain other risks. Please see the current prospectus for more information regarding the risk associated with an investment in the Fund.
The Fund is subject to management risk because it is an actively managed portfolio. The investment techniques and risk analysis used by the portfolio managers may not produce the desired results.
Risks of futures contracts include: an imperfect correlation between the value of the futures contract and the underlying commodity; possible lack of a liquid secondary market; inability to close a futures contract when desired; losses due to unanticipated market movements; obligation for the Fund to make daily cash payments to maintain its required margin; failure to close a position may result in the Fund receiving an illiquid commodity; and unfavorable execution prices.
In pursuing its investment strategy, particularly when "rolling" futures contracts, the Fund may engage in frequent trading of its portfolio securities, resulting in a high portfolio turnover rate.
Commodity-linked notes may involve substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of principal and risks resulting from lack of a secondary trading market, temporary price distortions, and counterparty risk.
Swaps are subject to leveraging, liquidity and counterparty risks, and therefore may be difficult to value. Adverse changes in the value or level of the swap can result in gains or losses that are substantially greater than invested, with the potential for unlimited loss.
Derivatives may be more volatile and less liquid than traditional investments and are subject to market, interest rate, credit, leverage, counterparty and management risks. An investment in a derivative could lose more than the cash amount invested.
To qualify as a regulated investment company (“RIC”), the Fund must meet a qualifying income test each taxable year. Failure to comply with the test would have significant negative tax consequences for shareholders. The Fund believes that income from futures should be treated as qualifying income for purposes of this test, thus qualifying the Fund as a RIC. If the IRS were to determine that the Fund’s income is derived from the futures did not constitute qualifying income, the Fund likely would be required to reduce its exposure to such investments in order to maintain its RIC status.
The Fund’s strategy of investing through it’s Subsidiary in derivatives and other financially-linked instruments whose performance is expected to correspond to the commodity markets may cause the Fund to recognize more ordinary income. Particularly in periods of rising commodity values, the Fund may recognize higher-than-normal ordinary income. Investors should consult with their tax advisor and review all potential tax considerations when determining whether to invest.
Leverage created from borrowing or certain types of transactions or instruments may impair liquidity, cause positions to be liquidated at an unfavorable time, lose more than the amount invested, or increase volatility.
The Fund may hold illiquid securities that it may be unable to sell at the preferred time or price and could lose its entire investment in such securities.
The Fund currently intends to effect creations and redemptions principally for cash, rather than principally in-kind because of the nature of the Fund's investments. As such, investments in the Fund may be less tax efficient than investments in ETFs that create and redeem in-kind.
DBB
This Fund is not suitable for all investors due to the speculative nature of an investment based upon the Fund's trading which takes place in very volatile markets. Because an investment in futures contracts is volatile, such frequency in the movement in market prices of the underlying future contracts could cause large losses. See {Important Considerations or Risk and Other Information} and the Prospectus for risk disclosures.
Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
The value of the Shares of the Fund relate directly to the value of the futures contracts and other assets held by the Fund and any fluctuation in the value of these assets could adversely affect an investment in the Fund’s Shares.
Please review the prospectus for break-even figures for the Fund.
The Fund is speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund.
The Fund is not a mutual fund or any other type of Investment Company within the meaning of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and is not subject to regulation thereunder.
Shares in the Fund are not FDIC insured, may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
This material must be accompanied or preceded by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
This Fund issues a Schedule K-1.
This link takes you to a site not affiliated with Invesco. The site is for informational purposes only. Invesco does not guarantee nor take any responsibility for any of the content.
