Tariff pain relief but not the full cure
Key takeaways
Potential relief in sight
The US-UK trade deal offers some relief from tariffs, but they remain higher than at the start of the year, potentially impacting US stocks.
Market optimism
The deal covers a limited portion of trade between the two countries and symbolizes a willingness to reduce tariffs, which could benefit financial markets.
Global sector allocations
Model allocations show varying investment stances and preferred regions, with Energy and Financial sectors being overweight in emerging markets and the US.
Welcome to Uncommon Truths, Paul Jackson and Andras Vig’s regular in-depth look at the big topics impacting markets.
The US-UK trade deal was far from "full and comprehensive" but its importance may be more what it symbolises: a willingness on the part of the US to row back from the reciprocal tariffs announced on 2 April 2025.
However, it did seem to set the 10% tariff as the new reference, which suggests there is no way back to the tariff situation that existed at the start of the year. As shown in the chart, a 10% uniform tariff could still damage the US economy (based on our estimates).
US stocks have underperformed so far this year (see chart) but the downside has been limited. Perhaps too limited given some of the tariff scenarios that are still possible (in my opinion). I am happy to remain underweight US stocks within my Model Asset Allocation.
