Private credit Sorting signals from noise in direct lending

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Direct lending has faced a wave of headlines from high-profile credit events, software sector stress, and pressure on semi-liquid investments. But how much of this reflects broader market fundamentals or is noise?

Invesco’s Head of Private Debt, Ron Kantowitz, recently joined the InsuranceAUM podcast to discuss what's actually driving stress in direct lending, why leverage and documentation standards matter more than ever, and where he sees compelling opportunities emerging. Here are some key takeaways.

Headlines versus market fundamentals

Recent headlines may be conflating distinct dynamics — high-profile credit events, software sector stress, and redemption pressures in semi-liquid vehicles — into a single narrative around direct lending risk, in Invesco’s view. While redemption requests at certain non-traded business development companies (BDCs) and interval funds have exceeded quarterly liquidity thresholds, most managers have fulfilled their contractual obligations.  This isn’t a systemic issue; from Invesco’s perspective, it’s a liquidity mismatch concentrated among a specific group of managers with outsized exposure to software.

Sector exposure and underwriting discipline

Software has long been attractive in private credit for its recurring revenue, low capital intensity, and significant equity cushions. Software deals typically carry leverage multiples of six to seven times, however, and often feature weaker documentation. As rates have risen and operating assumptions have been tested, these structural vulnerabilities have come into sharper focus.

Emerging opportunities

Businesses with proven track records, strong market positions, and alignment with experienced private equity sponsors continue to present attractive opportunities. Non-discretionary residential services, where demand is non-deferrable regardless of economic conditions, is an area that continues to stand out. On the other hand, businesses levered to discretionary consumer spending, those with complex global supply chains, and sectors facing elevated uncertainty, warrant more caution.

Considerations for investors

In a relatively opaque asset class, manager diligence is essential. Investors may benefit from examining metrics such as bad payment-in-kind (PIK) trends, leverage creep, sector and sponsor diversification, the quality of maintenance covenants, third-party valuation practices, and consistency of investment strategy over time.

Listen to the full podcast.