Global The Big Picture: Looking beyond the fog of war 2026 Q2
The global economy is gaining momentum as financial conditions ease, economic signals improve, real wages rise, and policy remains supportive across major economies.
We believe the market can continue to rise in the new year, and we expect new opportunities to be unlocked as market leadership evolves.
On the positive side, we think the global economy could accelerate (despite a slowing US economy) and that the Fed is about to embark on rapid easing.
The global economy is gaining momentum as financial conditions ease, economic signals improve, real wages rise, and policy remains supportive across major economies.
Our preferred economic and market indicators have become more challenged, but they aren’t flashing clear warning signs yet.
It’s unknown how long the conflict will last, but oil and other commodity exposure may help hedge the risk of a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure.
Asia faces heightened economic vulnerability as escalating Middle East tensions and disruptions in key Gulf shipping lanes drive oil prices higher, threatening growth, inflation stability, and market performance across major import‑dependent economies.
Markets are influenced by short‑term narratives and longer-term fundamentals. Emerging markets, Japan, and Europe have experienced improvements in both.
Following the US-Israel strikes on Iran, we offer four possible scenarios for what we could face in the coming weeks and explore the possible reaction of various asset classes.
Japan’s LDP secures a historic 68% Lower House supermajority, strengthening Prime Minister Takaichi’s mandate and boosting the outlook for Japanese equities, reform, and fiscal policy.
Japanese government bond yields jump amid PM Takaichi’s tax-cut plans. David Chao analyzes the impact on Japanese equities, bonds, and the yen, with key investment implications.
China’s trade surplus reached a record USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by export growth, a competitive RMB, and shifting global trade dynamics.
China met its 5% GDP growth target in 2025, led by exports and manufacturing. AI investment and policy support could lift growth and markets in 2026.
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbs to 1.95%, its highest since 2007, as markets anticipate a BOJ rate hike in December amid weak GDP data and stimulus plans.
Discover how China’s affordable, accessible AI strategy, powered by open-source innovation and strong policy support, is driving global adoption and reshaping industries.
After nearly two decades of relative underperformance, Europe is re-entering into the spotlight. With still-reasonable valuations, a strengthening euro, and a decisive shift toward proactive fiscal and defense policies, the investment case for European assets is more compelling than it has been in years.
European equities could warrant greater attention with secular and structural trends appearing to take shape. Find out more.
With the EU parliamentary results showing a rise in right-wing parties, French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections in France for its lower house of parliament.
Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in a hawkish surprise. Here’s what it means for rates, markets, and investors.
Preview the US midterm elections, with Democrats favored to retake the House, Republicans likely holding the Senate, and limited constraints on Trump’s policy agenda.
Explore the investment implications of recent US-Venezuela geopolitical developments. Learn how these events impact oil markets, precious metals, fixed income, and Asian assets, with insights from David Chao, Global Market Strategist.
This is a guide to the Section 899 tax proposals and its potential implications for foreign investors and businesses investing in certain US assets. Find out more.
Presidential elections haven't historically affected the stock market over the long term, so investors probably don't need to worry about November.
Voters, party leaders, and down-ballot candidates have had to quickly shift gears from a Trump-Biden rematch to a Trump-Harris showdown in the 2024 presidential election.
Expert voices from within Invesco and partnering affiliates share thier views on trends, and current and upcoming investment opportunities.
Gain investment clarity in Asia Pacific through our research, specialized insights, and thought leadership.