Global Iran war: What’s driving market sentiment?
Many assumed that if the Middle East conflict lasted more than a few weeks, it would be meaningfully negative for stocks. But markets appear to have absorbed the shock.
The global economy is gaining momentum as financial conditions ease, economic signals improve, real wages rise, and policy remains supportive across major economies.
Many assumed that if the Middle East conflict lasted more than a few weeks, it would be meaningfully negative for stocks. But markets appear to have absorbed the shock.
The breakdown of US/Iran talks leaves us waiting nervously for the next steps. So far during this crisis, financial market reaction has been relatively calm, despite lots of talk about stagflation. The 1970s oil price shock was difficult for investors but we doubt there will be a rerun.
On Tuesday last week Trump threatened the end of civilisation for Iran, before a ceasefire was tentatively agreed upon. The prospect of some form of peace dividend saw markets react very positively in the days following.
Conflict in the Middle East has led to the largest energy supply disruption in history. Commodity prices have surged, raising concerns about the outlook for inflation, global growth, monetary policy, and financial markets.
Major stock markets have corrected. But our preferred indicators suggest markets may still have work to do before a durable bottom is formed.
Paul Jackson in Invesco’s GMS Office shares his quarterly outlook on the currency markets. Find out more.
The US and Iran declared a tentative 14-day ceasefire early Wednesday before Asia markets opened. Investors cheered the news; stocks in Asia rallied, Brent oil fell precipitously and the USD eased.
Rising oil prices reshape China’s inflation outlook, with limited pass through, resilient energy security, and potential for a gradual reflation cycle.
Japan’s LDP secures a historic 68% Lower House supermajority, strengthening Prime Minister Takaichi’s mandate and boosting the outlook for Japanese equities, reform, and fiscal policy.
Japanese government bond yields jump amid PM Takaichi’s tax-cut plans. David Chao analyzes the impact on Japanese equities, bonds, and the yen, with key investment implications.
China’s trade surplus reached a record USD 1.2 trillion in 2025, driven by export growth, a competitive RMB, and shifting global trade dynamics.
China met its 5% GDP growth target in 2025, led by exports and manufacturing. AI investment and policy support could lift growth and markets in 2026.
After nearly two decades of relative underperformance, Europe is re-entering into the spotlight. With still-reasonable valuations, a strengthening euro, and a decisive shift toward proactive fiscal and defense policies, the investment case for European assets is more compelling than it has been in years.
European equities could warrant greater attention with secular and structural trends appearing to take shape. Find out more.
With the EU parliamentary results showing a rise in right-wing parties, French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections in France for its lower house of parliament.
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Presidential elections haven't historically affected the stock market over the long term, so investors probably don't need to worry about November.
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Gain investment clarity in Asia Pacific through our research, specialized insights, and thought leadership.