Markets and Economy Above the Noise: FOMO isn’t about ignoring risk

For as long as I can remember, I have been a FOMO guy. A “fear of missing out” has long shaped how I spend my time. It has its downsides, including occasional bouts of exhaustion, but I wouldn’t trade it. I genuinely cannot relate to the mindset of being comfortable standing on the sidelines while things are happening.

I admitted as much on television in 2022. Markets were on their way to being down 20% during an inflation scare and the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war.¹ When asked whether it was time to derisk portfolios, I responded that I was a FOMO guy who didn’t want to miss a market advance. It felt like a throwaway comment in the moment. Four years later, the same hosts still ask me if I’m still a FOMO guy. I never expected to be on television at all, let alone to have a self-admitted personality trait turn into a nickname. Brian Levitt, the FOMO guy, doesn’t quite roll off the tongue like Bill Nye, the Science Guy, but I wear it happily.

That instinct served me well again this April. Markets climbed back to all-time highs as the market assigned a growing probability of an end to the conflict with Iran.² It was another reminder that markets often move forward while the world anguishes over the news flow. Fear of missing out isn’t about ignoring risk. It’s about recognizing how costly it can be to wait for the clarity that never fully arrives.

It may be confirmation bias but …

… markets have historically tended to perform well in the 12 months following the onset of a geopolitical conflict , provided the economy was on a solid footing beforehand.³ The notable exceptions have been the 1973 Yom Kippur War and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, when stock markets struggled in the year that followed, when inflation was already running above 7% before they began.⁴

The Middle East conflict started with the global economy still expanding⁵ and inflation expectations broadly contained.⁶ Against that backdrop, history suggests the potential for higher stock markets one year after the start of the Iran war.

It was said

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.”

– Abbas Araghchi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, April 17, 2026

Well, that didn’t last long. Although on second thought, maybe the Strait of Hormuz will be open again by the time this article is published. I’m not going to try to time it, and neither should investors.

Iran’s foreign minister made the announcement that many had been hoping for and, quite frankly, that markets had already appeared to have been anticipating. While it didn’t last, the markets moved accordingly even before the statement was made. Oil prices had been falling⁷ and stocks rallied,⁸ signaling that investors were expecting a de-escalation. The confirmation helped extend what has been a solid advance in global stocks since the end of March.⁹

While we still don’t know how this will all play out, it should still serve as a reminder that the markets tend to anticipate future outcomes rather than await official announcements. By the time risks feel clearly resolved, prices have often already adjusted. Markets tend to be forward-looking and probabilistic rather than reactive or emotional.

Phone a friend

Do the negative headlines around private credit signal a fundamental credit problem, or are they masking a very different reality beneath the surface? I reached out to Scott Baskind, Chief Investment Officer of Invesco’s Global Private Credit platform. His response:

“Much of the recent concern around private credit has been driven by a handful of high-profile defaults and heightened media scrutiny that have painted the entire asset class with a single brush. This has blurred the distinction between credit risk and liquidity dynamics. At a broad level, corporate credit fundamentals remain sound. Revenues and earnings across much of the market are holding up, even as certain sectors such as software face faster changes driven by AI and broader macro pressures.¹⁰ Importantly, software exposure, while highly visible, represents roughly 20% of the overall private credit market and is concentrated in a limited number of funds.¹¹ Private credit remains diversified and focused on older, more defensive industries. Today’s environment has created a barbell opportunity set, combining attractive underwriting on high-quality performing credits with selective opportunistic investments where capital and liquidity are in demand. This period reflects normal market tension rather than a systemic breakdown, and long-term opportunities remain firmly intact, in my view.”

Hear more from Baskind in our recent episode of the Greater Possibilities podcast, available on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Since you asked

Q: Do you have any concerns about a smooth handoff from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman?

A: I wouldn’t frame this as a high risk of disorder at the Fed, and markets seem to agree. While President Trump has renewed rhetorical and legal pressure on Chair Powell, investors are largely discounting those threats on the view that the administration lacks the legal authority to force Powell out of the Fed outright. That assessment looks broadly correct.

The more interesting issue isn’t Powell remaining as a Fed governor, where the courts would almost certainly protect him, but whether Trump could successfully challenge Powell’s intention to remain as interim chair of the Board and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) if Kevin Warsh isn’t confirmed before Powell’s term expires on May 15. Even there, the upside for disruption appears limited. If Powell were blocked from serving in an interim role, those responsibilities would likely flow smoothly at the FOMC to John Williams of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Think/Rethink

Think: The US stock market appears significantly overvalued.

Rethink: The forward price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index is 20.3x, only modestly above the 10-year average of 18.9x.¹²

On the road again

My travels took me to Indianapolis for the NCAA Final Four. The fact that my alma mater won the men’s national championship was a pleasant coincidence. The real reason I was there was to visit the NCAA headquarters to speak about financial literacy to 300 current student athletes, an experience made even more memorable by being interviewed by Jay Williams. (This Wolverine respects greatness, even if it comes from Duke.) I also shared the stage with Wale Ogunleye of the Chicago Bears and Miami Dolphins, and Mario Morris, a national champion on the 1992 University of Alabama football team. When introduced, I joked that the audience must have been surprised that I was the guy from Invesco and not the professional football player. That got some good laughs.

I made my usual financial literacy points: Every purchase has an opportunity cost, small costs compound over time, save the money and invest, and money has time value, so give it the time to work.