Markets and Economy Client Conversations: Don’t get distracted by news headlines

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Key takeaways

  • While every generation has faced its challenges, from recessions to geopolitical crises, the market has continued to be resilient and grown in the long run.

  • Hard times make way for innovation. Historically, some of the most iconic companies investors know and buy into today were created during times of adversity.

  • You can use our conversation guide with clients to help you address their concerns about this complex topic.

On most days, there’s no shortage of disconcerting news stories that weigh on investors’ minds. It’s natural to want to do something to protect our portfolios from loss. In times like these, it is important to view the current crises through the lens of history and remember to stay the course.

As a financial professional, you can help your clients remain on track with easy talking points from our Client Conversations series. This conversation guide covers the following points you can use to help ease your clients’ concerns about the ups and downs of the world:

While every generation has faced challenges, the market has continued to advance long-term

The US has endured multiple wars, recessions, financial panics, epidemics, episodes of political strife, and much more. Yet the market has continued to grow over time.

That’s because markets don’t trade on whether things are good or bad but rather on whether they’re getting better or worse. And for most of recorded history, conditions have improved for most.

Geopolitical events have had less impact than suspected

High-profile geopolitical events and military conflict often weigh on investors’ nerves, but they haven’t had as large of an impact on markets as many suspect. In fact, markets have tended to perform well in the 12 months following a spike in the Geopolitical Risk Index.1

There’s often a silver lining

Out of despair often comes great innovation. Many iconic companies were born during recessions or other periods of turmoil, as challenging periods such as high unemployment often promote entrepreneurial activity.

  • 1

    Geopolitical Risk Index: A measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and economic effects since 1900. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment, stock prices, and employment. Higher geopolitical risk is also associated with higher probability of economic disasters and with larger downside risks to the global economy.